Decay watch: 2000 May 16

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue May 16 2000 - 12:35:42 PDT

  • Next message: Chris Peat: "FW: Info"

    Again, see http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/  for more
    detailed predictions for the following...
    
    
    #603 = 63- 22 B = Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r
    
    Current predictions for decay:
            SpaceCom: May 17 12:52 +-14h at 22.8 S, 39.7 W
            SatEvo  : May 17 12:42 +-6h  at  0.0  , 38.9 W
    I predict that this will decay near a southbound equator crossing just
    off Brazil halfway around the final predicted orbit:
    Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r                          145 x 139 km
    1 00603U 63022B   00138.49850697  .74525859  65523+1  10802-2 0 96245
    2 00603  89.8662 207.1808 0003999 252.8805 107.0757 16.48999852979201
             _________________________________________
    
    #10135 = 77- 61 B = Cosmos 925 r
    
    Revised decay predictions are:
            SpaceCom: May 17 06:13 +-14h at 50.0 N,  60.2 E
            SatEvo  : May 17 02:00 +-3h  at 0.0   , 133.8 E
    I put decay near a southbound equator crossing just N of Irian Jaya, New
    Guinea, though it may survive until the next northbound crossing near
    57.1 deg W, over the Amazon. SpaceCom has it lasting for another couple
    of orbits. Predicted final elset:
    Cosmos 925 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       175 x 157 km
    1 10135U 77061B   00137.62739821  .05939228  00000-0  40255-3 0  7636
    2 10135  81.1855 219.5247 0013874 258.7005 101.3407 16.40081036260104
             _________________________________________
    
    #20338 = 89- 94 A = Molniya 3-36
    
    Current decay predictions:
            SpaceCom: May 19 14:05 +-2d        56.5 S   126.7 E
            SatEvo  : May 19 18:34 +-1.1d
    No new SatEvo analysis since the latest elset is already 15 hours old. I
    intent to post a new prediction on my WWW page later this evening, if
    fresh elsets appear.
             _________________________________________
    
    #22726 = 93- 48 D = InSat 2B Spelda
    
    A new addition to the Decay watch list.
    Current predictions:
            SpaceCom: May 20 10:07 +-3d at 2.4 N, 101.0 E
            SatEvo  : May 20 18:51 +-1.3d
    This enters eclipse just S of the equator in the evening and leaves
    eclipse near 5 deg S in the morning.
             _________________________________________
    
    #26114 = 00- 17 B = IMAGE Delta 2 r
    
    Updated predictions:
            SpaceCom: May 17 08:02 +-15h at 39.2 S, 158.8 W
            SatEvo  : May 17 09:31 +-4h  at 15.7 S, 177.2 E
    I show it lasting for one orbit more than does SpaceCom, with re-entry
    while northbound to the N of New Zealand. It passes just E of the North
    Island of New Zealand at 09:25 UTC. Final predicted elset:
    IMAGE Del r      7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  7.8       147 x 113 km
    1 26114U 00017B   00138.33868177  .40502642  10498+1  22497-3 0 91406
    2 26114  91.2576 195.0032 0025910 318.5117  41.2917 16.53654145  8056
             _________________________________________
    
    Latest elsets for these objects:
    Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r                          217 x 198 km
    1 00603U 63022B   00137.70163263  .05405309  00000-0  19594-2 0  6253
    2 00603  89.8709 207.1935 0014295 265.8147  94.2242 16.24599869979077
    Cosmos 925 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       175 x 157 km
    1 10135U 77061B   00137.62739821  .05939228  00000-0  40255-3 0  7636
    2 10135  81.1855 219.5247 0013874 258.7005 101.3407 16.40081036260104
    Molniya 3-36                                     7073 x 79 km
    1 20338U 89094A   00137.17667707  .04529342  48999-5  10000-3 0  8602
    2 20338  63.4728 352.5831 3512810 247.0458 313.8683  8.74257066 77455
    InSat 2B Splda                                   1237 x 151 km
    1 22726U 93048D   00137.57597770  .21472729 -24211-4  92326-2 0  8667
    2 22726   7.0944 359.5062 0767462 326.5241  28.8099 14.59691275 98912
    IMAGE Del r      7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  7.8       248 x 140 km
    1 26114U 00017B   00137.60581944  .07833823  00000-0  35065-3 0  1404
    2 26114  91.2660 194.8564 0082276 321.8332  37.7901 16.29378925  7932
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue May 16 2000 - 12:36:57 PDT