Decay watch: 2000 May 15

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon May 15 2000 - 12:45:48 PDT

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    See  http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/  for more detailed
    predictions for the following...
    
    
    #603 = 63- 22 B = Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r
    
    Current predictions for decay:
            SpaceCom: May 17 17:17 +-2d at 28.0 S, 106.3 W
            SatEvo  : May 17 11:57 +-11h
             _________________________________________
    
    #10135 = 77- 61 B = Cosmos 925 r
    
    Revised decay predictions are:
            SpaceCom: May 17 06:23 +-1d at 11.4 N, 66.7 E
            SatEvo  : May 17 02:00 +-8h
             _________________________________________
    
    #20338 = 89- 94 A = Molniya 3-36
    
    After a gap of nine days, SpaceCom is predicting this decay again.
    Current decay predictions:
            SpaceCom: May 19 05:31 +-2d at 48.7 S, 7.3 W
            SatEvo  : May 19 18:34 +-1.1d
             _________________________________________
    
    #26085 = 00-  8 E = Globalstar 63 Delta 2 r
    
    Against the prediction I posted at May 14 15:15 UTC, this was running 4
    sec early at the epoch of the final elset...
    Gbstr 63 Del r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   15       170 x 123 km
    1 26085U 00008E   00135.70079526  .35162449  12779-4  34459-3 0  2315
    2 26085  49.5236 217.3666 0035452 312.8497  46.9322 16.47284308 14774
    
    The final few elsets show little or no evidence of a fall in the drag
    coefficient as this fell through the expected level of the atmospheric
    flow transition region. My final analysis has this effect "turned off"
    and indicates decay while northbound over Zimbabwe at May 14 19:37 +-30m
    near 20.2 S, 31.4 E. SpaceCom final analysis gives an earlier decay time
    of May 14 19:14 +-1m near 29.8 S, 94.2 W, which is near the preceding
    eastwards crossing of the far S of South America. My prediction for the
    final orbit:
    Gbstr 63 Del r   7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d   15       155 x 119 km
    1 26085U 00008E   00135.76140291  .47949029  23548+1  33131-3 0 92316
    2 26085  49.5224 217.0039 0027183 313.1589  46.6141 16.50888995 14783
             _________________________________________
    
    #26114 = 00- 17 B = IMAGE Delta 2 r
    
    Updated predictions:
            SpaceCom: May 17 06:37 +-1d at 24.9 S, 137.9 W
            SatEvo  : May 17 06:36 +-9h
             _________________________________________
    
    Latest elsets for these objects:
    Transit 5A3 Scout X-3 r                          244 x 229 km
    1 00603U 63022B   00136.46501748  .02538538  10225-1  25307-2 0  6213
    2 00603  89.8813 207.2180 0011441 252.9183 107.0823 16.13726271978875
    Cosmos 925 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       200 x 184 km
    1 10135U 77061B   00136.52534515  .03075331 -96431-6  68399-3 0  7562
    2 10135  81.1937 221.0477 0012180 251.9748 108.0222 16.30138076259929
    Molniya 3-36                                     8136 x 78 km
    1 20338U 89094A   00136.33576609  .40816208 -59331-6  96928-3 0  8538
    2 20338  63.4518 353.5824 3842542 247.1881 287.1007  8.08650739 77380
    IMAGE Del r      7.0  2.0  0.0  5.5 d  7.8       304 x 154 km
    1 26114U 00017B   00136.55714729  .04650823 -14128-6  71781-3 0  1341
    2 26114  91.2728 194.6498 0113302 330.3733  29.1188 16.16483714  7768
    
    There is a later elset for #20338 which has an unrealistic negative drag
    term and is ignored in my analysis.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon May 15 2000 - 12:47:56 PDT