SatEvo decay list #99

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat May 13 2000 - 13:00:18 PDT

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    SatEvo decay list #99  (issued 2000 May 13)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 June 30, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date. Most decay dates have slipped
    since my last posting, in line with (temporarily) decreased solar and
    geomagnetic activity.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,300 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     25056   64- 26 J   Transit 9 deb                     April 18?  Notes 1,2
     24187   94- 29 JN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 30.0
     22033   92- 41 D   Insat 2A Spelda                   April 30   Note 2
     26355   00- 23 B   Cosmos 2370 Soyuz r                 May  6.44
     23996   94- 29 AR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 10.2
      4029   61- 15 JR  Transit 4A deb                      May 11   Note 1
      3962   68- 91 BW  Cosmos 249 deb                      May 11.8
     25033   89- 85 D   USA 47 deb                          May 12.2
     17769   78- 26 HB  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb      May 15?
     26085   00-  8 E   Globalstar A Delta r       May 15
     26114   00- 17 B   IMAGE Delta 2 r1           May 16
       603   63- 22 B   Scout X-3 r                May 17
     10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r               May 17
     24694   94- 29 ABC STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 17
     22580   93- 16 H   Cosmos 2237 Zenit deb      May 19
     12180   78- 26 V   Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb      May 20
     20338   89- 94 A   Molniya 3-36               May 20
     22726   93- 48 D   Insat 2B Spelda            May 20
     22470   92- 93 FK  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb      May 22
     24234   94- 29 LH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 22
     25235   98- 12 C   SNOE Pegasus r             May 25
     24998   94- 29 ADF STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 27
      4624   70- 91 D   Cosmos 375 deb            June  1
     14411   68- 91 CM  Cosmos 249 deb            June  1
     24211   96- 44 D   Italsat 2 Spelda          June  3
      4985   70- 25 HF  Thorad Agena D deb        June  4
     24377   94- 29 QE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  4
      4006   61- 15 JL  Transit 4A deb            June  6
     13576   78- 26 FP  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb     June  7
     23782   96-  7 B   NSTAR 2 Ariane 44LP+3 r   June  7
     23858   96- 27 B   SAX Centaur r             June  8
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               June  9
     24093   94- 29 EQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  9
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r            June 10? Note 2
     22507   92- 93 GS  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     June 10
     24147   94- 29 GW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 10
     24771   97- 16 D   Thaicom 3 Spelda          June 10
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145               June 13
     19390   87- 20 BW  Cosmos 1823 deb           June 15
     22402   92- 93 CT  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     June 17
      3566   68- 97 S   Cosmos 252 deb            June 18
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077               June 18
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r             June 18
     24175   94- 29 JA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 18
     16934   86- 68 A   Molniya 1-68              June 20?
     22542   92- 93 HC  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb     June 20
      8092   72- 58 DT  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb     June 21
     25939   79-104 M   CAT 1 Ariane 1 deb        June 22
     24982   94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 23
      1721   65- 82 CC  OV2-1/LCS2 deb            June 25
     17206   86- 19 BJ  SPOT 1 r deb              June 26
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor       June 27
     14555   81- 53 JN  Cosmos 1275 deb           June 28
     24216   94- 29 KP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 28
     24262   94- 29 MM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 29
      9530   74- 94 E   Skynet 2B Delta 1 r2      July  7
     26357   00- 24 B   USA 149 Titan 4 r         July  7
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)       July  9
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird                July 20
     25739   99- 26 E   Terriers adapter cone     July 22
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2           July 31
     10362   77- 91 A   Cosmos 955              August
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor   August
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                  August
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2     August
     26361   00- 25 B   GPS 2R-4 Delta 2 r1     August
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot  September
     25310   98- 23 E   Globalstar 6 Delta r September
     25995   99- 68 B   Terra Centaur r      September
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October
     23501   95-  8 A   Cosmos 2306            October
     23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                 October
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2    October
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79             October
     25547   98- 68 B   Bonum Delta 2 r        October
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r          November  Note 3
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85            November
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    3. #25124 (97- 85 B = Early Bird r) was incorrectly identified as
    #25125 last time. Also #26245, the SESat Proton platform was given the
    incorrect designation 00- 19 B, when it should have been 00- 19 C.
    
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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