Decay watch: 2000 May 6 #2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat May 06 2000 - 07:49:43 PDT

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    #20338 = 89- 94 A = Molniya 3-36
    
    SpaceCom has posted a notice for this predicting its decay for May  6
    13:21 +-4h near 62.9 S, 167.4 W, more than one hour before I wrote this.
    I don't see the grounds for this prediction even though the latest elset
    has a (possibly too-low) perigee of 76 km (above the Earth's mean
    equatorial radius):
    Molniya 3-36                                     19050 x 76 km
    1 20338U 89094A   00127.45459378  .18097974  15147-4  10608-2 0  8073
    2 20338  63.4872 359.6587 5951242 247.0602 209.6258  4.31391543 76873
    
    I estimate that this will decay at about May 16.4 +-4d.
    
    
    #26355 = 00- 23 B = Cosmos 2370 Soyuz rocket
    
    SpaceCom has yet to post its post-decay notice for this, but the one
    before predicted decay for May 6 10:18 +-1h at 64.4 S, 9.0 W. The
    latest, and probably final, elset shows it 3.6 sec early with respect to
    the prediction I posted several hours ago:
    C 2370 Soyuz r   6.0  3.0  0.0  5.0 d   15       144 x 122 km
    1 26355U 00023B   00127.38036372  .30584338  80411-5  20757-3 0   233
    2 26355  64.7779  87.8658 0016729  66.7364 293.9074 16.52506309   463
    
    I estimate that this decayed near the following northbound equator
    crossing over the Indian Ocean at May 6 10:35 +-15m and 64.4 E. If it
    survived, it would have reached Bombay, India, at 10:39 UTC and Delhi at
    10:42.
    
    
    More at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat May 06 2000 - 07:51:59 PDT