Decay watch: May 6

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 6 May 1999 22:52:37 +0100

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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May  4 18:37     May  8 18:16 +-2d        27.6 N     3.4 W
SpaceCom   May  5 11:39     May  8 12:09 +-2d        29.6 S    79.3 E
SpaceCom   May  6 15:27     May  8 14:31 +-9h         9.2 S   129.9 W

SatEvo     Apr 28 21:00     May  9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr 30 19:10     May  7 23:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May  3 15:15     May  8 05:00 +-1.2d
SatEvo     May  4 19:40     May  8 02:43 +-18h
SatEvo     May  5 19:45     May  8 04:12 +-18h
SatEvo     May  6 21:35     May  8 07:07 +-8h

Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            197 x 188 km
1 08755U 76024B   99126.55513149  .02168089  26275-2  49009-3 0 92786
2 08755  81.2109 134.3508 0006712 220.6233 139.3266 16.30144598277520

SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            188 x 180 km
1 08755U 76024B   99127.04576059  .03397926  73892-2  57447-3 0 92787
2 08755  81.2099 133.6765 0005912 218.6744 141.2833 16.33184001277607
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            177 x 170 km
1 08755U 76024B   99127.53537148  .05029106  14935-1  55989-3 0 92782
2 08755  81.2084 133.0001 0004889 216.7201 143.2464 16.37211510277687
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            154 x 150 km
1 08755U 76024B   99128.08430389  .12992607  15653+0  37393-3 0 92780
2 08755  81.2057 132.2356 0003099 214.5116 145.4682 16.45386183277778

Note: Once again, the latest elset has it 1 second late against 
yesterday's SatEvo prediction.
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Object: #11553 = 79-  4 D = Molniya 3-11 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May  5 01:15     May  8 15:40 +-2d        25.6 S   115.6 E
SpaceCom   May  5 21:21     May  8 18:22 +-2d         7.1 S   123.8 W
SpaceCom   May  6 17:09     May  8 07:57 +-7h        36.5 S    16.3 E

SatEvo     May  4 19:45     May  8 21:33 +-1.5d
SatEvo     May  5 20:00     May  8 23:00 +-1d
SatEvo     May  6 21:45     May  8 04:25 +-12h

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-11 r2                                  2526 x 83 km
1 11553U 79004D   99126.87098815  .45097705  19950-4  58886-3 0  3681
2 11553  61.9381  26.7193 1589646 281.9253 243.4206 12.89232903146890

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-11 r2                                  2358 x 82 km
1 11553U 79004D   99127.06287829  .57580147  12181+0  68564-3 0 93685
2 11553  61.9236  26.2176 1497088 281.9824  61.6775 13.10838677146927
Molniya 3-11 r2                                  2066 x 82 km
1 11553U 79004D   99127.36410956  .71858800  20822+0  78998-3 0 93680
2 11553  61.9049  25.3936 1330940 282.0771  63.3558 13.49445993146968
Molniya 3-11 r2                                  1718 x 82 km
1 11553U 79004D   99127.65597370  .98377630  44832+0  97032-3 0 93681
2 11553  61.8830  24.5414 1123607 282.1763  65.4827 13.98143031147009

Note: Against yesterday's prediction, this was running 4.7 minutes 
early at the latest elset. The new prediction uses a SatEvo "Q-factor"
that gives a reasonable fit to the decay over the past two days.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/