Decay watch: May 4

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 4 May 1999 20:57:52 +0100

The decay of the GPS 2-19 rocket is imminent.
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Object: #388 = 62- 39 D = FTV 3502 Scout r

One further elset appeared, close to my final SatEvo-predicted elset;
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            144 x 135 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.81552244  .58892672  38115-5  70077-3 0  7209
2 00388  98.5159 338.2524 0006209 236.0229 124.1405 16.49948579974443
This does not significantly alter my conclusion regarding its decay.
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Object: #22583 = 93- 17 C = GPS 2-19 r1

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May  1 00:39     May  4 22:14 +-2d        30.0 N    68.2 W
SpaceCom   May  2 04:51     May  5 01:43 +-2d         2.9 S    10.4 E
SpaceCom   May  3 00:05     May  5 01:28 +-1d        30.4 N    42.8 W
SpaceCom   May  3 01:05     May  5 01:25 +-1d        33.1 N    51.9 W
SpaceCom   May  3 23:06     May  4 21:56 +-14h       14.0 S   135.5 W
SpaceCom   May  4 10:09     May  4 22:39 +-8h        16.0 N    30.5 E
SpaceCom   May  4 15:59     May  4 22:12 +-4h        23.7 N    82.9 W

SatEvo     Apr 30 19:15     May  4 21:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May  1 20:55     May  5 00:55 +-2d
SatEvo     May  3 15:00     May  5 00:10 +-9h         0.0      29.1 E
SatEvo     May  4 19:50     May  4 21:58 +-90m        0.0     117.1 W

Latest elset:
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            179 x 157 km
1 22583U 93017C   99124.61193115  .11025418  25611-5  79211-3 0  7883
2 22583  36.1379  76.9878 0016618 183.3888 176.6783 16.39200857328931

SatEvo prediction:
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            157 x 142 km
1 22583U 93017C   99124.79428479  .29820427  89517+0  63135-3 0 97884
2 22583  36.1365  75.6419 0011392 185.2730 174.7150 16.46026909328966
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            141 x 131 km
1 22583U 93017C   99124.85484797  .65990989  50798+1  57693-3 0 97889
2 22583  36.1354  75.1909 0007876 185.9043 174.0864 16.51218195328971

Note: The latest elset has this 52 seconds early against yesterday's 
prediction.
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May  4 18:37     May  8 18:16 +-2d        27.6 N     3.4 W

SatEvo     Apr 28 21:00     May  9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr 30 19:10     May  7 23:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May  3 15:15     May  8 05:00 +-1.2d
SatEvo     May  4 19:40     May  8 02:43 +-18h

Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            215 x 207 km
1 08755U 76024B   99124.64779131  .01297663 -95250-6  53850-3 0  2569
2 08755  81.2090 136.9530 0006391 185.7154 174.5473 16.23131534277213

SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            212 x 204 km
1 08755U 76024B   99125.01751511  .01566827  12923-2  59229-3 0 92560
2 08755  81.2086 136.4505 0006112 184.2635 175.7312 16.24283810277271
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            207 x 200 km
1 08755U 76024B   99125.51012740  .01790904  17785-2  58997-3 0 92566
2 08755  81.2080 135.7796 0005710 182.3251 177.6722 16.25932086277357
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            202 x 195 km
1 08755U 76024B   99126.00220414  .02100588  25291-2  58687-3 0 92561
2 08755  81.2073 135.1077 0005266 180.3840 179.6155 16.27837805277439
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Object: #11553 = 79-  4 D = Molniya 3-11 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     May  4 19:45     May  8 21:33 +-1.5d

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-11 r2                                  4069 x 87 km
1 11553U 79004D   99124.48118056  .30011839  12904-4  65682-3 0  3509
2 11553  61.9539  32.0018 2354241 281.3536  48.1877 11.16536144146607
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/