Decay watch: May 3

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 3 May 1999 16:20:09 +0100

OIG has restored its feed from SpaceCom...
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Object: #388 = 62- 39 D = FTV 3502 Scout r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 27 00:20     May  3 18:06 +-4d        65.6 N   171.1 W
SpaceCom   Apr 29 06:46     May  3 01:51 +-2d        79.5 N    38.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr 29 22:12     May  2 22:42 +-2d        36.1 N   132.5 E
SpaceCom   Apr 30 20:50     May  2 19:00 +-1d        30.7 S     9.2 E
SpaceCom   May  2 01:38     May  2 21:49 +-12h        4.4 N    27.3 W
SpaceCom   May  2 09:57     May  2 21:49 +-7h         5.0 N    27.2 W
SpaceCom   May  2 15:54     May  2 21:54 +-4h        15.8 S    31.6 W
SpaceCom   May  2 19:29     May  2 21:04 +-2h        13.9 S   165.6 E
SpaceCom   May  3 02:14     May  2 20:47 +-24m       71.5 S   166.5 W

SatEvo     Apr 27 19:45     May  4 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr 29 19:50     May  3 11:00 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 30 19:05     May  3 01:27 +-18h
SatEvo     May  1 20:40     May  2 23:58 +-8h         0.0     118.6 E
SatEvo     May  3 14:00     May  2 20:48 +-20m       55.3 S   178.4 E

Final elset:
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            155 x 147 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.75477428  .28493717  34299-5  72256-3 0  7194
2 00388  98.5107 338.1632 0006077 251.4067 108.6000 16.45687328974434

Note: By the epoch of its final elset, this was running 53 seconds 
early against the elsets I had posted here on the 1st. My predicted 
elset for the beginning of the final orbit is:
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            143 x 137 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.81551117  .52621484  32730+1  65155-3 0 97192
2 00388  98.5092 338.2459 0004580 251.1580 108.7923 16.49845615974444
SatEvo gives decay just before it crossed northbound over New Zealand,
but is may have survived to reach the equator over Melanesia.
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Object: #22583 = 93- 17 C = GPS 2-19 r1

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May  1 00:39     May  4 22:14 +-2d        30.0 N    68.2 W
SpaceCom   May  2 04:51     May  5 01:43 +-2d         2.9 S    10.4 E
SpaceCom   May  3 00:05     May  5 01:28 +-1d        30.4 N    42.8 W
SpaceCom   May  3 01:05     May  5 01:25 +-1d        33.1 N    51.9 W

SatEvo     Apr 30 19:15     May  4 21:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May  1 20:55     May  5 00:55 +-2d
SatEvo     May  3 15:00     May  5 00:10 +-9h         0.0      29.1 E

Latest elset:
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            237 x 188 km
1 22583U 93017C   99123.14130124  .03182275  25950-5  10712-2 0  7782
2 22583  36.1398  87.6602 0036871 163.6744 196.5212 16.22569783328690

SatEvo prediction:
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            222 x 181 km
1 22583U 93017C   99123.75578705  .04109265  87612-2  98428-3 0 97789
2 22583  36.1389  83.2377 0031548 169.8652 190.1986 16.26772047328795
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            214 x 176 km
1 22583U 93017C   99124.00108468  .04896769  12986-1  97048-3 0 97783
2 22583  36.1384  81.4639 0028975 172.3483 187.6960 16.28968254328839
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            203 x 170 km
1 22583U 93017C   99124.30718473  .06518981  23579-1  93954-3 0 97780
2 22583  36.1376  79.2415 0025169 175.4594 184.5635 16.32416749328888
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            190 x 162 km
1 22583U 93017C   99124.55152979  .08976550  53023-1  88746-3 0 97782
2 22583  36.1368  77.4584 0021463 177.9555 182.0532 16.36130137328925

Note: The latest elset shows this running 4 seconds early against the 
predicted orbital evolution I've posted here over the past two days. I 
show a night-time decay while SE-bound over central Africa.
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Apr 28 21:00     May  9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr 30 19:10     May  7 23:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May  3 15:15     May  8 05:00 +-1.2d

Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            228 x 219 km
1 08755U 76024B   99122.67201295  .01028705 -94854-6  60930-3 0  2511
2 08755  81.2125 139.6199 0006435 168.1972 191.9224 16.18540798276895
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/