SatEvo decay list #76

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 2 May 1999 21:28:05 +0100

SatEvo decay list #76  (issued 1999 May 2)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects
are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by
1999 June 15 (as in my previous list), although some larger and/or more
interesting decayers are included beyond that date. In general, decay
dates have slipped since last time and a number of objects, mostly
debris, have dropped off the list. Several recently catalogued debris
objects from the Cosmos 2053 Tsyklon-3 rocket seem likely to decay
within the coming weeks; to date, these have too few published elsets
for me to predict their decay.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all
the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus
elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle, 
and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects.


   #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (1999) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24605   94- 29 ZH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 20
 25689   86- 17 NC  Mir deb                           April 21
 24428   94- 29 SG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 24 Note 2
 25182   87- 68 H   Meteor 2-16 deb                   April 24 Note 2
 24180   94- 29 JF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 27 Note 2
 25688   86- 17 NB  Mir deb                           April 27 Note 2
 24545   94- 29 WV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                April 28 Note 2
 25245   87- 68 BN  Meteor 2-16 deb                   April 29 Note 2
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2                   April 30.13
 25222   87- 68 AZ  Meteor 2-16 deb                   April 30 Note 2
   388   62- 39 D   FTV 3502 Scout r           May  3.0
 23578   94- 85 Y   Rad Rosto deb              May  3
 24598   94- 29 ZA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  3
 22583   93- 17 C   GPS 2-19 r1                May  5.0
 18744   87- 20 X   Cosmos 1823 deb            May  6
 25188   87- 68 P   Meteor 2-16 deb            May  6? Note 1
  8755   76- 24 B   Cosmos 808 r               May  7
 24042   94- 29 CP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  7
 11553   79-  4 D   Molniya 3-11 r2            May  8
 22508   92- 93 GT  C 2227 Zenit deb           May 11
 24013   94- 29 BJ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 11
 25252   87- 68 BV  Meteor 2-16 deb            May 11? Note 1
 24229   94- 29 LC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 12
 25206   87- 68 AH  Meteor 2-16 deb            May 12  Note 1
 25692   86- 17 NF  Mir deb                    May 13
 14492   77- 65 FH  Himawari 1 Delta deb       May 15
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r         May 17
 22497   92- 93 GG  C 2227 Zenit deb           May 23
 19532   88- 89 B   NOAA 11 deb                May 27
 25683   99- 20 B   Landsat 7 Delta 2 r        May 27
  8538   72- 58 GM  Landsat 1 Delta deb        May 28
 13469   81- 53 FR  Cosmos 1275 deb            May 29
 25139   98-  2 F   Skynet 4D Delta 2 deb      May 30
 20352   89- 96 A   Granat                    June  3
 25690   86- 17 ND  Mir deb                   June  8
  5432   70- 89 BY  Cosmos 374 deb            June 10
 24162   94- 29 HM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 12
 25055   78- 64 J   Seasat 1 deb              June 12
 24203   94- 29 KE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 14
 23186   94- 43 B   APStar 1 CZ-3 r           June 17
  4120   69- 84 B   Meteor 1-2 r              June 22
 23558   86- 17 JE  GFZ 1                     June 26
 25670   99- 17 B   DSP 19 Titan 4 r          July  9
 14168   83- 65 C   Galaxy 1 PAM D r          July 15
 12133   81-  2 A   Molniya 3-14              July?
 25500   98- 25 F   C 2350 aux motor        August
 25685   99- 21 A   Sputnik 99              August
 15076   84- 63 E   Raduga 15 aux motor  September
 25625   99-  4 E   Glblstar 36 Soyuz r1 September
 22878   93- 68 B   GPS 2-23 Delta r1      October
 25653   99- 12 E   Glblstar 22 Soyuz r1   October
 25550   98- 69 B   SAC-A                 November
 25680   99- 19 E   Glblstar 19 Soyuz r1  November
 24832   97- 28 E   C 2344 SOZ ullage r   December
 22016   92- 39 C   Navstar 26 Del 2 r2   2000 Jan - Feb
 22564   93- 15 B   UFO 1 r1              2000 Jan - Feb
 22702   93- 42 C   GPS 2-21 Delta r2     2000 Jan - Feb
 24972   97- 57 B   IRS-1D r              2000 Jan - Feb
 25014   97- 63 B   STEP M4 Pegasus r     2000 Jan - Feb
 25551   98- 69 C   MightySat             2000 Jan - Feb

Notes

1. No recent elsets.

2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/