Decay watch: May 1

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 1 May 1999 22:11:41 +0100

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Object: #388 = 62- 39 D = FTV 3502 Scout r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 27 00:20     May  3 18:06 +-4d        65.6 N   171.1 W
SpaceCom   Apr 29 06:46     May  3 01:51 +-2d        79.5 N    38.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr 29 22:12     May  2 22:42 +-2d        36.1 N   132.5 E
SpaceCom   Apr 30 20:50     May  2 19:00 +-1d        30.7 S     9.2 E

SatEvo     Apr 27 19:45     May  4 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr 29 19:50     May  3 11:00 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 30 19:05     May  3 01:27 +-18h
SatEvo     May  1 20:40     May  2 23:58 +-8h         0.0     118.6 E

Latest elset:
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            213 x 205 km
1 00388U 62039D   99121.52799463  .03516004  31490-5  13820-2 0  7104
2 00388  98.5288 336.5319 0006157 274.2715  86.1602 16.23800889974231

SatEvo predictions:
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            201 x 194 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.02026264  .05320216  15451-1  14302-2 0 97102
2 00388  98.5272 337.1832 0005231 272.3170  87.6231 16.28276295974313
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            181 x 176 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.51098258  .09413908  49888-1  13116-2 0 97106
2 00388  98.5248 337.8373 0003967 270.3534  89.6011 16.35129554974398
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            151 x 148 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.87715075  .27927368  57220+0  67442-3 0 97107
2 00388  98.5211 338.3311 0002310 268.8706  91.1030 16.46339449974454
FTV3502 Scout r  1.5  0.5  0.0  6.5 d            138 x 136 km
1 00388U 62039D   99122.93786016  .51012021  21697+1  55653-3 0 97106
2 00388  98.5199 338.4140 0001769 268.6217  91.3581 16.50826318974467

Note: This was 10 sec early against yesterday's SatEvo prediction at 
the epoch of the latest elset. I predict decay near a northbound 
equator crossing over Indonesia.
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Object: #22583 = 93- 17 C = GPS 2-19 r1

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   May  1 00:39     May  4 22:14 +-2d        30.0 N    68.2 W

SatEvo     Apr 30 19:15     May  4 21:00 +-2d
SatEvo     May  1 20:55     May  5 00:55 +-2d

Latest elset:
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            269 x 203 km
1 22583U 93017C   99121.22846570  .03194347  25846-5  19539-2 0  7714
2 22583  36.1400 101.3181 0050079 142.0619 218.3689 16.13913512328388

SatEvo prediction:
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            258 x 198 km
1 22583U 93017C   99122.03181358  .02063318  18000-2  10279-2 0 97714
2 22583  36.1393  95.6117 0045551 150.0499 210.2114 16.16961258328519
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            250 x 194 km
1 22583U 93017C   99122.52538767  .02373272  24375-2  10160-2 0 97712
2 22583  36.1388  92.0924 0042415 154.9764 205.2298 16.19143575328596
GPS 2-19 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v            241 x 189 km
1 22583U 93017C   99123.01824430  .02810171  35606-2  99920-3 0 97717
2 22583  36.1383  88.5662 0038944 159.9125 200.2412 16.21684897328670

Note: The latest elset is 15 hours old and has a drag term that I think 
is too high. The prediction, as usual, is from an analysis combining 
it with several earlier elsets.
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SatEvo     Apr 28 21:00     May  9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr 30 19:10     May  7 23:00 +-2d

Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            234 x 224 km
1 08755U 76024B   99121.55843872  .00825721  43546-3  57183-3 0  2460
2 08755  81.2117 141.1193 0007055 172.8714 187.2516 16.16513212276715
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/