SatEvo decay list #54

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 18 May 1998 21:44:17 +0100

SatEvo decay list #54  (issued 1998 May 18)

This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published 
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Objects are included this time if I anticipate their decay by June 30, 
although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included 
beyond that date.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay 
objects below, together with other objects of interest, including 
Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued 
objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at
        ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/
and are updated several times daily.

   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 23910   86- 17 KY  Mir deb                             May  4.2
 25326   98- 26 H   Iridium 69 CZ-2C deb                May  6.0
 25323   98- 26 E   Iridium 69 CZ-2C deb                May  6.1
 21057   91-  3 C   Italsat 1 Ariane r                  May  8.23
 21895   92- 10 C   Superbird B1 Ariane r               May  8?
 25333   98- 28 C   Echostar 4 Proton plat              May  8.69
 24354   94- 29 PF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May  9
 25265   98- 18 D   Iridium 51 CS02 S/D                 May  9.97
 25332   98- 28 B   Echostar 4 Proton r                 May  9.99
 24423   94- 29 SB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 13
 19380   88- 69 D   Molniya 1-73 r2                     May 10.50
 25277   98- 19 F   Iridium 55 Delta r                  May 11.45
 14034   83- 38 A   Cosmos 1456                         May 11.86 Note 2
 24554   94- 29 XE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 12
 22852   89- 89 AP  COBE deb                            May 13
 24214   94- 29 KM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 14
 24408   94- 29 RM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                  May 15
 25341   98- 31 B   Progress M-39 Soyuz-U r             May 16.75
 25195   87- 68 W   Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb               May 17.4
 24633   94- 29 AAM STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 20
 24419   86- 17 LV  Mir deb                    May 21
 24899   97- 41 E   C 2345 SL12 aux mot        May 21
 24958   97- 58 C   Sputnik-40                 May 21
 24747   97- 10 D   Zeya deb                   May 22
 15344   71-120 F   Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb       May 26
 24098   94- 29 EV  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 27
 25250   87- 68 BT  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb      May 29
 25304   86- 17 MU  Mir deb                    May 30
 25293   86- 17 MN  Mir deb                    May 31
 25329   98- 27 C   C 2351 Molniya plat        May 31
 24746   97- 10 C   Zeya deb                  June  1
 23920   86- 17 LG  Mir deb                   June  5
 25301   86- 17 MR  Mir deb                   June  5
 25321   98- 26 C   Iridium 69 CZ-2C r        June  5
 23085   89- 89 CG  COBE deb                  June  7
 25303   86- 17 MT  Mir deb                   June  7
 24384   94- 29 QM  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  8
 24580   94- 29 YG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June  8
 25087   97- 78 B   Galaxy 8I Centaur r       June 10?
 24552   94- 29 XC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 11
 25109   97- 82 F   Iridium 45 Delta r        June 16
 25328   98- 27 B   C 2351 Molniya r          June 16
 24991   94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 17? Note 1
 23262   90- 81 CT  FY-1B CZ-4 deb            June 19
 23904   86- 17 KX  Mir deb                   June 21
 22768   89- 89 AD  COBE deb                  June 22
 24649   96- 62 B   Mars GS Delta 2 r         June 22
  5145   71- 15 AH  Cosmos 397 deb            June 24
 24639   78- 96 G   Tiros N deb               June 24
 19730   88-115 A   Molniya 1-74              June 25? Note 1
 22914   93- 73 D   Solidaridad Ariane deb    June 25
 24583   94- 29 YK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb        June 27
 19828   63- 14 EP  Westford Needles deb      June 29?
 24294   96- 50 D   Interbol 2 Molniya-M r    July
 25322   98- 26 D   Iridium 69 CZ-2C S/D      July
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2         August
 14041   83- 38 E   Cosmos 1456 r           August
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r      August
 25347   98- 32 F   Iridium 70 Delta r      August
 25100   97- 58 D   Inspektor              October


Note

1. No recent elsets.

2. #14034. I reported this as having decayed on April 30 in my previous
list, but it is now clear that the five elsets issued between April 20 
and April 30 were totally spurious and that this object really decayed
on May 11.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/