Decay watch: Progress M-39 Soyuz rocket

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 15 May 1998 19:05:41 +0100

The Soyuz-U rocket which launched Progress M-39 is due to decay at about
May 16.9 (+-0.3d) according to my calculations. This is leaving eclipse
in the Earth's shadow near 49 deg N latitude in the local morning sky
and entering eclipse near 49 deg S latitude in the evening. 

The latest elset from OIG is
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              202 x 180 km
1 25341U 98031B   98135.53141872  .03473879  12174-4  66814-3 0    71
2 25341  51.6242 212.2497 0016507  71.9108 288.3680 16.30593789    94

My SatEvo predicted elsets to decay:
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              196 x 176 km
1 25341U 98031B   98135.77640562  .04030566  10206-1  65138-3 0 90078
2 25341  51.6237 210.8813 0014949  72.9325 287.2312 16.32383393   139
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              189 x 172 km
1 25341U 98031B   98136.02111073  .04973598  16030-1  64541-3 0 90076
2 25341  51.6231 209.5106 0013211  73.9560 286.1894 16.34569048   178
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              180 x 166 km
1 25341U 98031B   98136.26544725  .06585158  29995-1  63377-3 0 90079
2 25341  51.6223 208.1371 0011211  74.9816 285.1424 16.37353122   211
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              168 x 157 km
1 25341U 98031B   98136.50929325  .09884086  64680-1  59870-3 0 90077
2 25341  51.6212 206.7600 0008770  76.0100 284.0874 16.41269068   254
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              148 x 141 km
1 25341U 98031B   98136.75238695  .21244304  40309+0  33579-3 0 90072
2 25341  51.6192 205.3771 0005319  77.0428 283.0165 16.48044949   297
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              139 x 134 km
1 25341U 98031B   98136.81296497  .32611990  11112+1  30134-3 0 90079
2 25341  51.6183 205.0299 0004021  77.3022 282.7428 16.51195443   301
Prog M-39 Soyuz-U r                              121 x 119 km
1 25341U 98031B   98136.87338521  .96137441  16112+2  35687-3 0 90078
2 25341  51.6167 204.6815 0002012  77.5625 282.4601 16.57425875   313

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/