C2350 Proton R/B reentry pr

ROB MATSON (ROBERT.D.MATSON@cpmx.saic.com)
1 May 1998 14:25:25 -0800

Hi All,

For fun I decided to run a little calculation to see what the reentry
probabilities are for Cosmos 2350 Proton R/B.  Assuming Alan's
reentry of roughly May 2nd 2:30 UTC +/- 2 hours, here are the
probabilities:

Pacific Ocean:  40.6%
South Atlantic Ocean:  23.3%
Asia: 18.8%
Africa:  12.5%
South America:  1.5%
Indian Ocean:  0.8%
Mediterranean:  0.8%
Red Sea:  0.4%
China Sea:  0.4%
Black Sea:  0.4%
Falklands:  0.2%
Japan:  0.2%

Combined probability over water:  66.9%
0% probability for North America, Europe and Australia.