New elsets from OIG confirm that the decay of this object has accelerated. The latest elset from OIG is: Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 259 x 168 km 1 24763U 97015C 97136.00176144 .03409118 84135-5 81332-3 0 1245 2 24763 62.8527 140.8016 0069350 117.6929 243.1893 16.22350669 5647 This shows it running 13 seconds late with respect to my previous SatEvo evolution which was based on a x2.39 increase in drag from the onset of the geomagnetic storm on the morning of the 15th. Simply changing the factor to x2.11 produces an evolution which satisfies all but one of the seven elsets since then with a mean error of 0.3 sec (max 0.9 sec) - the omitted elset (at 97135.38) being clearly a "rogue". The new evolution predicts decay around May 17.4 (ie tomorrow). However, assuming that the atmosphere will settle down after the storm, I expect the object to begin to run late and for the decay to be delayed a little. The evolution over the next few hours runs: Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 248 x 165 km 1 24763U 97015C 97136.24806380 .04798580 85156-2 98361-3 0 91248 2 24763 62.8520 139.8018 0062925 117.7378 242.9000 16.24829896 5686 Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 236 x 163 km 1 24763U 97015C 97136.49403569 .05639098 14932-1 99249-3 0 91245 2 24763 62.8511 138.8000 0055774 117.7828 242.7833 16.27376086 5728 Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 223 x 160 km 1 24763U 97015C 97136.73958374 .07094341 26155-1 10156-2 0 91248 2 24763 62.8502 137.7959 0047576 117.8281 242.6535 16.30468675 5766 Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 205 x 156 km 1 24763U 97015C 97136.98459689 .10061548 63312-1 96741-3 0 91248 2 24763 62.8488 136.7888 0037656 117.8735 242.5082 16.34567218 5809 Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 178 x 147 km 1 24763U 97015C 97137.22883215 .20318053 30922+0 74220-3 0 91246 2 24763 62.8467 135.7775 0023982 117.9193 242.3235 16.41324366 5841 Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 167 x 142 km 1 24763U 97015C 97137.28969715 .28919477 67085+0 68945-3 0 91244 2 24763 62.8459 135.5236 0019108 117.9308 242.2626 16.44251614 5857 Cosmos 2340 SL-6 plat 150 x 134 km 1 24763U 97015C 97137.35042352 .56230724 28305+1 67615-3 0 91249 2 24763 62.8447 135.2690 0012469 117.9424 242.1839 16.49011674 5868 I plan to post another analysis this (UK) evening. Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144 Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224