Decay update

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 28 May 1996 22:09:07 +0100

I calculate that object #13786 = 83-  6 B (N-2 R1) decayed at about May
27.05. The final five OIG elements show it running within 30s of the
prediction in my previous update.
The final OIG element is:
83-  6 B
1 13786U 83006B   96147.85943431  .15080380 -78564-5  52536-3 0  6639
2 13786  28.3681 141.2701 0037249 282.2390  77.6983 16.39760426357135

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Object #23459 = 94- 87 E (SL-12 R aux motor) decayed at about
May 27.15. My SatEvo prediction was less satisfactory, with 
the object running 22 minutes early by my final predicted epoch.
Its final OIG element is:
94- 87 E
1 23459U 94087E   96148.11198461  .93961242  88038-5  66589-3 0  9423
2 23459  46.2485 102.4452 0140166 173.5367 187.6940 16.29924800 26860

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Even less satisfactory is my SatEvo decay list #6 prediction that object
#18978 = 63- 14 DR (Westford Needles deb) would decay at May 27.5. It is
still up there, with decay now postponed until May 30.

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A trawl through potential decay candidates I had not been monitoring
until now suggests that object #23660 = 95- 45 E (another SL-12 R aux 
motor, from last August's Cosmos 2319 launch) may decay on about June 8.

              ------------------------------------------

The same trawl yielded one object we all missed. #23684 = 95- 54 E (yet
another SL-12 R aux motor, this one from last October's LUCH 1 launch)
decayed while our backs were turned at about May 20.2. The final four
OIG elements make interesting reading for aficionados of high drag
rates; the tle format does not support ndots (or MMDOT, if you prefer)
of more than 0.99999999:
95- 54 E  
1 23684U 95054E   96139.31189277  .59188470  20001-4  24615-2 0  1858
2 23684  46.7493 195.2694 2509990  77.6426 309.1751 10.79455040  5736
95- 54 E  
1 23684U 95054E   96140.81625857  .99999999  33398-4  30729-2 0  1894
2 23684  46.7813 190.3232 1292902  83.2529 301.7118 13.54598379  5907
95- 54 E  
1 23684U 95054E   96140.88714889  .99999999  33279-4  23033-2 0  1916
2 23684  46.7618 190.0432 1207520  83.5951 290.0836 13.75169614  5921
95- 54 E  
1 23684U 95054E   96141.16914625  .99999999  95185-5  24383-2 0  1934
2 23684  46.7227 188.6447 0540023  86.3314 327.3790 15.35953657  5960
95- 54 E  
1 23684U 95054E   96141.16064515  .99999999  10193-4  32789-2 0  1943
2 23684  46.7495 188.7828 0611178  80.0677 286.8587 15.14857796  5950

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224