Decay update

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 24 May 1996 22:37:10 +0100

The final OIG element for object #11791 = 80- 32 B (Atlas F R) is: 
80- 32 B
1 11791U 80032B   96143.29034878  .14391675  88424-5  14590-3 0  5362
2 11791  62.9279 282.4587 0089647 273.4053  86.1198 16.37715423386032
I suspect that decay occurred some three orbits later at about May
22.54.

              ------------------------------------------

Object #13786 = 83-  6 B (N-2 R1) is now predicted to decay at about
May 27.1.
The latest OIG element is:
83-  6 B
1 13786U 83006B   96145.46125590  .02519249 -76567-5  74076-3 0  6532
2 13786  28.3860 160.0679 0104582 251.2917 107.7435 16.13256638356743
Fitting a SatEvo evolution through the last five elsets (over two days)
gives residuals of under 1s. Plugging my derived values for n and ndot 
into the above element, and continuing the evolution provides the
following predicted elements:
83-  6 B
1 13786U 83006B   96146.01725893  .03403941  36253-2  85329-3 0 96534
2 13786  28.3854 155.7655 0092946 258.3092 100.6466 16.16941907356832
83-  6 B
1 13786U 83006B   96147.00237478  .04996854  93791-2  85384-3 0 96533
2 13786  28.3839 148.0817 0067577 270.8424  88.3833 16.24991009356994
83-  6 B
1 13786U 83006B   96147.98086131  .25248568  48344+0  73726-3 0 96531
2 13786  28.3808 140.3282 0022840 283.4895  76.2550 16.43006064357157

              ------------------------------------------

The low-perigee, high-drag, object #23459 = 94- 87 E (SL-12 R aux motor)
appears to be heading for decay at about May 27.6.
The latest OIG element is:
94- 87 E
1 23459U 94087E   96145.29295741  .13310406  69617-5  48439-3 0  9280
2 23459  46.3238 117.5078 0797822 156.6474 207.2850 14.64656039 26431
Again, fitting five elements over two days (max residual 0.5s) and 
substituting the "improved" n and ndot into the above element, 
leads to the following predictions:
94- 87 E
1 23459U 94087E   96146.03755298  .15996798  11819-1  53388-3 0 99282
2 23459  46.3166 113.8056 0705443 160.3592 202.4988 14.86847812 26543
94- 87 E
1 23459U 94087E   96147.03358847  .21253734  26077-1  61800-3 0 99285
2 23459  46.3050 108.6417 0554349 165.5385 196.1137 15.23250713 26693
94- 87 E
1 23459U 94087E   96148.00346670  .23951162  15421+0  56552-3 0 99283
2 23459  46.2923 103.3095 0381218 170.8898 189.8208 15.65321848 26845

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224