Acceleration Report: 22 May 96 : 86- 30 B

Kurt Jonckheere (kjonckheere@unicall.be)
Wed, 22 May 1996 20:54:34 +0200

86- 30 B = 16682 is maybe accelerating.
Don't forget the others! See previous reports.
You can also find the acceleration reports, sometimes accompanied
with graphs on Bjorn Gimle's Homepage (thanks Bjorn)
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Since last weekend, I've started to check the orbital elements on 
a daily base (was weekly with the files from Ted Molczan).

I started this because we should try to follow an acceleration from
the very beginning.

Of course this way of working means also that I am now checking on
smaller perturbations, and there is a greater possiblity that I will
be wrong I guess (were there will be no acceleration of the rocket).
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The first one I found today is: 86- 30 B = 16682

This is a rocket from the acceleration group with inclination
around 74.0 degrees, apogee +- 770 km, perigee +- 805 km.  This 
group showed a lot of accelerating rockets last months: 87- 49 B,
87- 98 B and 88- 53 B.

Because the drag value has been increasing in absolute value for
the last week, there IS a chance that it is not just a small
perturbation.  Next days we can see if the MMdot will continue
to increase and the rocket might accelerate.

This object is VISIBLE for the moment for Northern latitudes, it
is ending its evening visibility and starting the morning passes.

Let's give it a try.

Good luck!
                                  drag value
1 16682U 86030  B 96136.95707537  .00000030  00000-0  10967-4 0  5972
2 16682  74.0242 298.0021 0014492 321.0977  38.9128 14.32661129526756
1 16682U 86030  B 96137.93466976 -.00000059  00000-0 -12190-4 0  6042
2 16682  74.0239 296.2144 0014590 319.6210  40.3856 14.32660786526898
1 16682U 86030B   96139.47088871 -.00000122 +00000-0 -35173-4 0 06145
2 16682 074.0239 293.4080 0014574 316.3836 043.6134 14.32660087527111
1 16682U 86030B   96139.88985867 -.00000178 +00000-0 -55939-4 0 05839
2 16682 074.0241 292.6429 0014642 315.1824 044.8127 14.32659473527170
1 16682U 86030B   96140.93728297 -.00000242 +00000-0 -79324-4 0 05958
2 16682 074.0242 290.7295 0014533 312.7864 047.2063 14.32658488527325
1 16682U 86030B   96141.91487817 -.00000241 +00000-0 -78935-4 0 06011
2 16682 074.0241 288.9437 0014569 310.7854 049.2031 14.32658085527462
1 16682U 86030B   96142.89247390 -.00000248 +00000-0 -81361-4 0 06079
2 16682 074.0241 287.1581 0014623 308.9067 051.0779 14.32657610527608

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        Kurt Jonckheere (kjonckheere@unicall.be)   51.2 N  2.9 E 
    observations collector for the Belgian Working Group Satellites: 
Send your observations of flashing satellites, preferrably in the correct
     PPAS format to obs@physics.oxford.ac.uk or obs@physics.ox.ac.uk
              I Dreamed I Dream      --       Sonic Youth
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