USA 310: gradual increase in altitude

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Sat, 13 Mar 2021 10:28:32 -0500
The altitude of USA 310 (20083A / 46918) has been gradually increasing since early January. This is
evident in hobbyist and ISON elements published weekly by JSC "Vimpel Interstate Corporation”.

The mean motion was nearly constant from epoch 20350 through epoch 21004, but has been gradually
decreasing ever since. During Feb 23 to Mar 01, ndot/2 was -0.00000234 rev/d^2, on average.

Comparison with the result of orbit propagation using GMAT 2018a confirms that the evolution of the
inclination and RAAN is as expected in the presence of Earth's gravity and lunisolar perturbations.
But this is not true of eccentricity, argument of perigee, and mean motion.

SRP (solar radiation pressure), appears not to explain the orbital changes. This is based on GMAT
propagations based on a sphere, with various area to mass ratios. No attempt was made to analyze
more complex SRP spacecraft geometry and orientation.

Since the eccentricity has remained fairly constant, I suspect that the spacecraft has been
manoeuvring to a higher orbit. However, the rate of climb has been extremely slow, so it is not
going anywhere fast. Perhaps the changes are minor tweaks of the orbit.

I am interested in alternative explanations.

The following TLE has been fit to ISON/Vimpel position vectors, following conversion from J2000 to
TEME.

USA 310                                              11074 X 11099 km
1 46918U 20083A   21060.96907407  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    05
2 46918  58.4983 277.6711 0007177 278.8114  81.1597  3.76151888    09

Ted Molczan

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Received on Sat Mar 13 2021 - 09:29:19 UTC

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