Re: Falcon 9 decay

From: Robert Holdsworth (
Date: Sun Mar 10 2013 - 22:18:37 UTC

  • Next message: Jon Mikel: "RE: RE: Falcon 9 decay"

    I observed the Dragon R/B 1X last night from a location about 1.5 km west
    of my home location,  it was in fact quite bright and easily visible,
    around 1 mag.  There appeared to be some variation in magnitude though this
    could have been owing to some slight difficulties with the conditions which
    were basically good but with approaching mist.  I also missed a small
    amount of the pass as I had to change position because some of the sky was
    observed by a building roof.
    Unfortunately I could not provide a measured observation owing to the ad
    hoc nature of my attempt when away from home on other business, the only
    statistic (of little value)  I can give is that shadow entry occurred at
    about 0803 UTC plus or minus 1 minute close to Circinus.  The R/B was
    certainly a fast mover!
    Sorry for the delay in reporting but I did not have Internet access till
    Calsky and Aerospace both still indicate that the pass over here tonight
    our time could be the decay one, owing to the user agreement I cannot be
    too specific about SpaceTrack but its advice means decay could occur
    Regrettably the forecast indicates that after weeks of mostly fine weather
    it is likely to be cloudy for the pass of interest so I am unlikely to have
    anything to report unless there is a very spectacular decay!
    New Zealand
    On 10 March 2013 14:57, Robert Holdsworth <> wrote:
    > This also raises the possibility of a pass at or near decay (or just
    > after!) on a visible pass over New Zealand and this is  what is predicted
    > by Calsky though not by SpaceTrack, however their prediction at this stage
    > does not exclude the possibility.
    > Our pass would be at around 0723 on the 11th UTC. (2023 local,)  (The
    > decay pass predicted by Jon would pass too low in the sky for me to see it,)
    > So recommended that Australia and New Zealand observers follow predictions
    > closely as the R/B gets nearer to decay.  Any further updates from Joseph
    > (whose predictions as mentioned in  a previous posting have been amazingly
    > accurate) or anyone else would also be much appreciated: the current one
    > from Joseph would mean decay may occur long before it reaches us.
    > Although we have a pass tonight our time it is predicted to be
    > comparatively faint, though it should be visible in good conditions with
    > good binoculars, but it is fairly likely I will not have a chance to
    > attempt observation at the time.
    > Thanks
    > Robert
    > Wainuiomata
    > New Zealand
    > 41.261S
    > 174.948E
    > On 10 March 2013 08:06, Jon Mikel <> wrote:
    >> Hi Joseph, i am amazed with the precision of your own softwares, last
    >> times
    >> they have been correct with the position of the reentry.
    >> I make my own analysis, at the moment like a test, but it looks like (in
    >> my
    >> analisys) will reenter near the coast of Australia:
    >> This should be enought accurate to 1 rev. more or less...
    >> I will see the results and i'll make a comparative of my analysis vs the
    >> reality.
    >> --
    >> Jon Mikel, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque
    >> Country.
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