ATV 1 pre-launch elements

From: Ted Molczan (ssl2molcz@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Mar 04 2008 - 02:17:16 UTC

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    The launch of ATV 1 (aka Jules Verne), on its mission to bring supplies to the
    ISS, has been delayed to 2008 Mar 09 at 03:59 UTC.
    
    I have estimated the following elements using the best sources I could find. 
    
    I estimate prediction time accuracy for the first couple of revs to be about 2
    min; sky-track predictions could easily be off by several degrees, especially on
    high elevation passes.
    
    The initial orbit is valid from approximately 04:16 to 05:01 UTC:
    
    ATV/ESC         14.5  5.0  0.0  3.0 v                    136 X 260 km
    1 71700U          08069.20931713  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    07
    2 71700  51.6000 171.3200 0094300  52.0000 180.3000 16.28160000    02
    
    While in the initial orbit, ATV will remain attached to the Ariane 5's ESC upper
    stage, resulting in a stack about 14.5 m long, and mean diameter of about 5 m.
    Estimated standard visual magnitude is about 3 (1000 km range, 90 deg
    phase-angle).
    
    The circularized orbit is valid beginning shortly after 05:01 UTC:
    
    ATV 1            9.8  4.5  0.0  3.5 v                    259 X 261 km
    1 71700U          08069.20931714  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    08
    2 71700  51.6000 171.3200 0001000  52.0000 180.3000 16.05406000    05
    
    The 4.7 m x 5.4 m upper stage will be in a similar orbit, until its de-orbit
    burn, at about 06:27 UTC, just west of Australia.
    
    Note: the epoch of both of the above element sets corresponds to first apogee,
    near the time of the circularization burn.
    
    Visibility from Europe
    
    On its first pass over Europe, the ATV/ESC stack is predicted to exit eclipse at
    about 04:24 UTC, about 149 km above 50.8 N, 13 E, as it approaches Eastern
    Europe.
    
    One rev later, at about 5:54 UTC, ATV and its ESC stage (now separated) will
    pass over the U.K., at an altitude of about 265 km. This will be several minutes
    prior to the start of civil twilight.
    
    I would appreciate any information that would enable improving the accuracy of
    these elements; an official state vector would be ideal.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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