A good time to search for USA 161

From: b_gimle@algonet.se
Date: Wed Mar 09 2005 - 10:46:21 EST

  • Next message: Ted Molczan: "NOSS 3-3 elements"

    ... but I have clouds coming in for several days.
    Checking the predicted pass time lag of USA 161 (using 05006 epoch)
    from USA 129, I find an unprecedented 1:59 today (Mar.09).
    Their MM's would be near 14.738 (161) and 14.733 (129), so it
    would take another three weeks before a minimum of <1:55!
    Usually, the size of reboosts place the minimum near 2:15.
    If OTOH 161's MM was reduced by about 0.0025 around Jan.02, it would
    now be closer to 14.735, and 2:15 behind today, for a minimum of 2:13
    within ten days. This would also make the lag at the recent USA 129
    reboost 2:41 instead of 2:35 on Feb.03 (more like normal procedure)
    and even explain the two minute "delay" in Rod Austin's obs:
    Note that Ted concluded that such a small maneouvre could not
    explain the cross-track discrepancy:
    A (slightly) larger reboost can move the minimum closer in date,
    or even into the past, and still make the Feb.03 lag reasonable.
    But if the minimum is to be kept near 2:15, it would have to have
    been much later than Jan.02, and not explain Rod's obs.
    Still, over the whole range of +- three weeks from today of a 2:15
    minimum, USA 161 would not be more than 2:21 behind USA 129.
    Suggested search elset:
    USA 161 068
    1 26934U 01044A   05068.79175879  .00001700  00000-0  97767-4 0    17
    2 26934  97.8920 179.6947 0345753   3.9192 356.4599 14.73530222  9150
    (Description of 2-line elements: http://www.satobs.org/element.html)
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