Updates from my Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24838 = 97- 30 C = Iridium 9
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Mar 4 14:06 Mar 11 02:58 +-4d 25.7 S 102.1 E
SatEvo Mar 4 21:20 Mar 10 21:08 +-2d
Latest elset:
Iridium 9 tum 4.0 1.8 0.0 6.5 d 10 278 x 264 km
1 24838U 97030C 03063.61580729 .00976083 47391-3 17997-2 0 2880
2 24838 86.4224 318.7989 0010741 45.2432 315.0207 16.01229516306988
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #24847 = 97- 31 B = Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Mar 3 22:40 Mar 3 21:44 +-7m 4.8 N 116.8 W
SatEvo Mar 4 21:00 Mar 3 20:40 +-90m 5.2 S 5.3 W
Final elset:
Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r 415 x 127 km
1 24847U 97031B 03062.76005825 .84620690 -33760-4 29481-2 0 872
2 24847 6.7804 236.7289 0216461 204.4926 154.9818 16.01162448 74545
Note: My predicted final elsets for this are:
Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r 325 x 113 km
1 24847U 97031B 03062.82184616 1.43858911 41973+1 18819-2 0 90872
2 24847 6.7798 236.1909 0161041 205.5573 153.6376 16.20145532 74555
Intelsat 802 Ariane 44P r 179 x 106 km
1 24847U 97031B 03062.88304212 7.41951575 50000+2 37265-2 0 90876
2 24847 6.7788 235.6431 0055751 206.6415 153.0710 16.48955314 74569
In fact, the very high drag in the second of these elsets leads me to
suspect that this may have already decayed by that epoch, perhaps
south of Nigeria following the previous perigee. It is possible that
it did survive to decay on my final predicted rev, as SCC suggests.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
-----------------------------------------------------------------
To unsubscribe from SeeSat-L, send a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@satobs.org
List archived at http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Mar 04 2003 - 16:41:57 EST