Decay watch: 2002 March 26

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Mar 26 2002 - 16:10:51 EST

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    A summary of today's updates to my Decay Watch page, where you'll find 
    more predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15679 = 85- 35 C = GStar 1 Ariane 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 26 19:01     Mar 27 19:23 +-16h        1.2 N    14.0 E
    SatEvo     Mar 26 21:05     Mar 27 22:05 +-9h         2.7 S    63.9 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GStar 1 Ariane 3 r                               598 x 135 km
    1 15679U 85035C   02085.61240766  .14175572 -31108-4  10898-2 0  1413
    2 15679   6.5297 127.8307 0343060 286.9831  69.1327 15.67252438222007
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page
    (..ends)
    GStar 1 Ariane 3 r                               261 x 120 km
    1 15679U 85035C   02086.80263842  .68092480  14046+1  10108-2 0 91410
    2 15679   6.5268 117.7533 0107797 306.9417  52.0755 16.30829576222192
    GStar 1 Ariane 3 r                               209 x 115 km
    1 15679U 85035C   02086.86364873 1.16574151  65170+1  10810-2 0 91410
    2 15679   6.5264 117.2040 0071793 308.0296  51.3246 16.41396011222204
    
    Note: This decay has slipped back almost to where I had it three days
    ago.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25018 = 97- 64 B = Lacrosse 3 Titan 4 rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 26 09:51     Mar 26 09:34 +-7m        54.0 S   143.0 W
    SatEvo     Mar 26 20:50     Mar 26 09:22 +-15m       41.8 S   139.2 E
    
    Final elset:
    Lacrosse 3 r    10.0  3.5  0.0  3.5 v   26       135 x 121 km
    1 25018U 97064B   02085.36563178  .26172808  11752-4  14315-3 0   910
    2 25018  56.9672 248.2424 0010439 171.1220 273.9609 16.54386554240470
    
    Note: This survived for longer than SpaceCom and I had been expecting.
    I put the decay to the S of Australia following a southbound pass
    across western Australia on the orbit given by the final elset above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27393 = 02- 12 C = GRACE 1 Briz-KM rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 26 19:10     Mar 27 06:45 +-8h        28.3 N   112.5 W
    SatEvo     Mar 26 20:30     Mar 27 09:52 +-5h        33.0 S   159.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GRACE 1 Briz-KM r                                247 x 120 km
    1 27393U 02012C   02085.70492857  .08358442 -14116-5  12753-3 0   430
    2 27393  88.9996 353.1247 0096714 229.2317 130.0524 16.33558256  1496
    
    SatEvo prediction: see Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    GRACE 1 Briz-KM r                                161 x 109 km
    1 27393U 02012C   02086.31488583  .32018936  66469+0  18398-3 0 90438
    2 27393  88.9936 353.0274 0039541 226.4562 133.2147 16.51691985  1599
    GRACE 1 Briz-KM r                                138 x 104 km
    1 27393U 02012C   02086.37541074  .62805026  54929+1  24014-3 0 90437
    2 27393  88.9914 353.0175 0026201 226.1756 133.6074 16.56913889  1606
    
    Note: I have this decaying while southbound over the southern Pacific
    after passing over Hawaii at 09:39 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Mar 26 2002 - 20:07:47 EST