Decay watch: 2002 March 25

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Mar 25 2002 - 15:24:18 EST

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    Today's summary of my Decay Watch page updates - check the page for 
    SatEvo-predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #15679 = 85- 35 C = GStar 1 Ariane 3 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 25 11:47     Mar 27 11:40 +-1d         2.6 S    98.8 E
    SatEvo     Mar 25 19:50     Mar 27 14:30 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    GStar 1 Ariane 3 r                               759 x 139 km
    1 15679U 85035C   02084.52022782  .11796276 -29369-4  13476-2 0  1371
    2 15679   6.5235 136.5062 0454121 269.3628  85.4488 15.39116051221832
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25018 = 97- 64 B = Lacrosse 3 Titan 4 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 25 07:07     Mar 26 07:34 +-15h       36.0 N   104.3 E
    SatEvo     Mar 25 20:05     Mar 26 07:52 +-4h        33.5 S   152.1 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Lacrosse 3 r    10.0  3.5  0.0  3.5 v   26       189 x 167 km
    1 25018U 97064B   02084.68168150  .05683728  11450-4  67109-3 0   879
    2 25018  56.9804 251.6776 0016666 278.6425  81.3102 16.35418235240361
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Lacrosse 3 r    10.0  3.5  0.0  3.5 v   26       151 x 139 km
    1 25018U 97064B   02085.23010369  .25799193  59806+0  39037-3 0 90875
    2 25018  56.9768 248.9544 0008887 279.8538  80.0458 16.47957565240453
    Lacrosse 3 r    10.0  3.5  0.0  3.5 v   26       138 x 129 km
    1 25018U 97064B   02085.29069712  .50518930  25900+1  39218-3 0 90873
    2 25018  56.9758 248.6495 0006515 279.9896  79.9369 16.52202424240460
    
    Note: I show this decaying southbound near the E coast of Australia
    on the last of these SatEvo-predicted orbits. The track takes it
    across Australia from the Gulf of Carpentaria (E of Darwin) at 07:46 UTC
    to a decay point lies just E of Sydney at my estimated decay time. the
    uncertainty is still several orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27393 = 02- 12 C = GRACE 1 Briz-KM rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 25 04:17     Mar 27 02:39 +-1d        48.9 S    49.1 W
    SatEvo     Mar 25 20:15     Mar 27 09:54 +-14h       36.2 S   159.4 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GRACE 1 Briz-KM r                                320 x 130 km
    1 27393U 02012C   02084.53481120  .04741973 -12143-5  15271-3 0   360
    2 27393  88.9994 353.3074 0144059 230.7799 128.0652 16.18145972  1300
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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