There is a chance that the Progress rocket will decay over the USA -
there are certainly sighting opportunities over the coming hours. This
is a full copy of my latest update on this from my Decay watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27396 = 02- 13 B = Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U rocket
Notice prepared: 2002 Mar 23 07:55 UTC
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 22 01:30 Mar 22 22:25 +-12h 8.3 S 171.4 W
SpaceCom Mar 23 03:16 Mar 23 13:47 +-6h 33.9 N 115.8 W
SpaceCom Mar 23 07:20 Mar 23 13:32 +-4h 48.0 N 161.4 E
SatEvo Mar 22 20:00 Mar 23 15:23 +-6h 3.9 S 106.3 W
SatEvo Mar 23 07:55 Mar 23 13:24 +-2h 41.1 N 144.3 E
Latest elset:
Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r 178 x 156 km
1 27396U 02013B 02082.24525607 .10462197 12360-4 73488-3 0 121
2 27396 51.6182 124.6673 0016562 96.2268 264.0336 16.39673215 236
SatEvo prediction:
Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r 166 x 148 km
1 27396U 02013B 02082.36700139 .17498671 22822+0 59051-3 0 90120
2 27396 51.6172 123.9775 0014072 96.7420 263.4181 16.43239145 257
Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r 159 x 143 km
1 27396U 02013B 02082.42776699 .23279116 46519+0 49979-3 0 90126
2 27396 51.6165 123.6318 0012393 97.0003 263.1406 16.45675678 269
Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r 148 x 135 km
1 27396U 02013B 02082.48842411 .37261145 13706+1 44339-3 0 90124
2 27396 51.6156 123.2852 0010001 97.2593 262.8544 16.49199078 277
Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r 122 x 116 km
1 27396U 02013B 02082.54889029 2.17790592 50000+2 78130-3 0 90125
2 27396 51.6139 122.9371 0004739 97.5193 262.5345 16.57645773 284
Note: It was 10 sec early on yesterday's prediction at the epoch of
the latest elset. I now predict that this might re-enter over N Japan
as it approaches northern apex on the last predicted rev above. If it
stays longer in orbit, there is a pass down the length of California
that takes it from Sacramento at 13:41 UTC to Yuma, Arizona, at 13:43.
It should also be visible from the USA on earlier orbits.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Mar 23 2002 - 03:13:54 EST