Decay watch: 2002 March 22

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Mar 22 2002 - 15:29:42 EST

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    My Decay Watch page carries decay notices for the new Progress rocket 
    and Lacrosse 3 rocket. Here is a summary - check the page for more 
    predicted elsets.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25018 = 97- 64 B = Lacrosse 3 Titan 4 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 22 16:00     Mar 26 16:03 +-2d        42.9 N   139.9 W
    SatEvo     Mar 22 20:15     Mar 26 22:26 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    Lacrosse 3 r    10.0  3.5  0.0  3.5 v   26       244 x 214 km
    1 25018U 97064B   02081.54197624  .01512563  10949-4  95663-3 0   714
    2 25018  56.9884 266.8994 0022615 276.6817  83.1730 16.16448745239850
    
    Note: This large bright object enters eclipse southbound near 33 deg S
    in the evening sky and it leaves eclipse while northbound near 10 deg
    S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27396 = 02- 13 B = Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 22 01:30     Mar 22 22:25 +-12h        8.3 S   171.4 W
    SatEvo     Mar 22 20:00     Mar 23 15:23 +-6h         3.9 S   106.3 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          210 x 173 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02081.69507287  .05217644  12141-4  92717-3 0    80
    2 27396  51.6370 127.7386 0027848  96.8612 263.5676 16.30514074   147
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (..ends)
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          151 x 135 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.54947567  .30993614  86959+0  38315-3 0 90086
    2 27396  51.6319 122.9273 0012393 100.4508 259.6889 16.48733945   283
    Progress M1-8 Soyuz-U r                          134 x 123 km
    1 27396U 02013B   02082.60999038  .74716754  69194+1  41826-3 0 90083
    2 27396  51.6306 122.5798 0008262 100.7102 259.3828 16.54214627   299
    
    Note: This is obviously close to the orbital plane of the ISS. It
    enters eclipse while northbound near 22 deg S in the evening sky and
    leaves eclipse southbound near 46 deg N before dawn. I show this
    decaying near a southbound equator crossing to the S of Mexico on the
    final SatEvo-predicted orbit above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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