A summary of today's update to my Decay Watch page:
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #19189 = 88- 44 A = Molniya 3-32
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 14 07:18 Mar 15 07:34 +-15h 62.4 S 78.9 E
SatEvo Mar 14 21:50 Mar 15 07:55 +-4h 52.9 S 120.9 W
Latest elset:
Molniya 3-32 2439 x 78 km
1 19189U 88044A 02073.84376886 .99999999 10634-4 15069-2 0 291
2 19189 62.4490 97.7341 1545222 263.4853 79.1073 13.00947926 67199
SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-32 1771 x 82 km
1 19189U 88044A 02074.06756744 2.32257594 15058+1 22465-2 0 90252
2 19189 62.2856 97.0725 1156374 263.2722 83.4625 13.90631072 67227
Molniya 3-32 930 x 78 km
1 19189U 88044A 02074.27585963 4.61292551 98095+1 24230-2 0 90258
2 19189 62.2330 96.3997 0619483 263.3324 89.5832 15.20657721 67254
Molniya 3-32 452 x 73 km
1 19189U 88044A 02074.34076432 9.99999999 50000+2 27071-2 0 90259
2 19189 62.1999 96.1544 0285419 263.3551 93.3885 16.04307110 67269
Note: My statement yesterday that the perigee was unlikely to be as low
as the approx 58 km implied by the (then) latest elset produced the
comment (criticism?) that "TLEs are double-averaged elements (averaged
over one revolution and one rotation of the line of apsides). It might
be that the actual perigee altitude is some kilometers higher". Since
then, the corresponding (and admittedly simplistic) perigee height for
published elsets has varied between 71 and 925 km. IMHO, such a
variation is not only unlikely but impossible.
My latest analysis excludes the obviously erroneous elsets, and confirms
that the decay has slipped. I suspect re-entry is most likely following
perigee on the penultimate of my SatEvo-predicted orbits over the SE
Pacific Ocean.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23742 = 95- 69 B = Galaxy 3R Atlas 2A Centaur rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 14 00:45 Mar 16 00:32 +-1d 16.4 N 159.2 E
SatEvo Mar 14 22:35 Mar 16 03:43 +-20h 26.6 N 150.9 W
Latest elset:
Galaxy 3R Centaur r 864 x 127 km
1 23742U 95069B 02073.22787652 .15629977 -73059-5 83355-3 0 2905
2 23742 26.5652 358.3173 0536321 43.2249 321.0405 15.23574011 95738
SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
(..ends)
Galaxy 3R Centaur r 281 x 110 km
1 23742U 95069B 02075.07835239 .92506490 21996+1 92152-3 0 92905
2 23742 26.5461 344.7800 0129694 65.9301 295.4215 16.29013624 96024
Galaxy 3R Centaur r 204 x 105 km
1 23742U 95069B 02075.13925104 1.85117302 17099+2 10916-2 0 92903
2 23742 26.5437 344.2863 0075488 66.7582 294.0349 16.44181789 96031
Note: Fresh elsets are seriously overdue.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Thu Mar 14 2002 - 17:55:25 EST