SatEvo decay list #114 (issued 2001 March 24) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 May 20, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including the ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for some 8,400 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ---- Decay (2001) ---- Predicted Actual? 23019 94- 14 A Koronas 1 March 4.43 26062 00- 4 B OCS March 5.29 17152 86- 19 AF Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb March 5.8 26709 01- 7 H Odin Start-1 deb March 5.8 26705 01- 7 D Odin Start-1 deb March 5.9 4215 69- 82 CE OPS 1807 ThAg deb March 6.1 26706 01- 7 E Odin Start-1 deb March 6.7 12948 81- 53 EC Cosmos 1275 deb March 7.0 26327 99- 57 HL CBERS LM4 deb March 7.0 4620 70- 89 G Cosmos 374 deb March 7.9 4623 70- 91 C Cosmos 375 deb March 11.3 26707 01- 7 F Odin Start-1 deb March 12.4 9968 61- 15 KQ Transit 4A deb March 13.7 14361 81- 53 HX Cosmos 1275 deb March 14? 26399 00- 36 F Cosmos 2371 aux motor March 16.75 22466 92- 93 FF Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb March 17.3 26691 01- 4 B GPS 2R-7 Delta 2 r March 17.35 24217 94- 29 KQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 17.7 24441 94- 29 SX STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 21.3 Note 1 16609 86- 17 A Mir March 23.24 Note 2 26059 00- 3 B Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r March 23.37 22233 92- 79 C GPS 2-16 r2 March 24 23951 96- 40 D Arabsat 2A Spelda March 25 26173 99- 57 BK CBERS LM4 deb March 25 26326 99- 57 HK CBERS LM4 deb March 27 19733 88-115 D Molniya 1-74 r2 March 28 23029 94- 16 C GPS 2-24 r2 March 28 25554 64- 49 J Cosmos 41 deb March 28? 24385 94- 29 QN STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 30 25013 97- 63 A STEP M4 March 31 26177 99- 57 BP CBERS LM4 deb April 2 22464 92- 93 FD Cosmos 2272 Zenit deb April 3 462 61- 15 EY Transit 4A deb April 6 20471 88- 93 C Cosmos 1975 deb April 7 21840 70- 25 QL Nimbus 4 ThAg deb April 9 26161 99- 57 AX CBERS LM4 deb April 9 23133 94- 35 B UHF F/O 3 r April 11 23281 94- 61 C Cosmos 2292 deb April 11 24099 94- 29 EW STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 14 25392 98- 42 D Tubsat N SSN-23 deb April 14 15957 85- 70 E Raduga 16 aux motor April 15 26176 99- 57 BN CBERS LM4 deb April 15 17988 86- 19 NQ Spot 1 Ariane deb April 19 26271 99- 57 FH CBERS LM4 deb April 19 26258 99- 57 EU CBERS LM4 deb April 20 5143 71- 31 B Meteor 1-8 r April 24 26249 99- 57 EK CBERS LM4 deb April 24 15553 69- 82 KS OPS 1807 ThAg deb April 25 26210 99- 57 CY CBERS LM4 deb April 25 21841 70- 25 QM Nimbus 4 ThAg deb April 29 26730 99- 51 D Ikonos 2 Athena deb April 30 5393 70- 25 KY Nimbus 4 ThAg deb May 2 10960 77- 53 B NTS 2 Altas r May 2 5034 70- 89 E Cosmos 374 deb May 4 16546 64- 6 K Elektron 1 deb May 7 16547 64- 6 L Elektron 1 deb May 7 25107 97- 82 D Iridium 48 May 10 24359 94- 29 PL STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 11 647 61- 15 GY Transit 4A deb May 15 11458 79- 67 B Cosmos 1116 r May 20 14313 83- 90 A Molniya 3-21 May 30 17094 79- 17 JH Solwind deb June 1 11252 79- 5 B Meteor 1-29 r June 3 26723 01- 10 B STS-102 deb (PAD) June 6 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 June 27 15955 85- 71 D Cosmos 1675 r July 18980 88- 22 A Molniya 1-72 July 22048 92- 43 F Gorizont 26 aux motor July 22933 93- 78 D DBS 1 r July 23099 94- 27 A SROSS-C2 July 23172 94- 38 E Cosmos 2282 aux motor July 26502 00- 49 G Raduga-1 5 aux motor July 11266 79- 11 A Cosmos 1076 August 19544 88- 90 D Molniya 3-33 r2 August 14319 83- 90 D Molniya 3-21 r2 October 14516 83-114 A Molniya 1-59 October Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. Although my policy is to exclude from this list objects that are de-orbited intentionally (eg Shuttle, Soyuz, Progress), I make an exception for Mir. The "decay" time above corresponds to the observed re-entry phenomena over Fiji, with ocean impact probably just before March 23 06:00 UTC. 3. Following my warning of its imminent decay in my previous Decay List, #26538 = Cosmos 2372 was manoeuvred higher and no longer appears in the above list. 4. Thanks to Michael A. Earl of the Space Surveillance Research and Analysis Laboratory, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, for the "heads up" regarding several of the objects that are decaying from Molniya-type orbits. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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