From today's update to my Decay Watch page...
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #16609 = 86- 17 A = Mir
Final decay analyses:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 23 10:02 Mar 23 06:04 +-40m 51.0 S 124.5 W
SatEvo (not predicted)
Final elsets:
Mir Complex 32.7 4.2 0.0 1.6 v 384 194 x 159 km
1 16609U 86017A 01082.17420660 .44402778 11910-4 43348-2 0 7816
2 16609 51.6196 249.7886 0026531 205.9392 324.3294 16.36088465863295
Mir Complex 32.7 4.2 0.0 1.6 v 384 215 x 151 km
1 16609U 86017A 01082.20636684 .00382588 12180-4 29147-4 0 7827
2 16609 51.6362 249.6171 0048914 224.8684 134.9353 16.33569098863305
Note: I am a little surprised that SpaceCom has ventured this decay
analysis for Mir. Not only is the epoch of the final published
elset prior to the final de-orbit "burn", but there is ample
evidence in the public domain that Mir's decay point was a few
minutes (5?) before 06:04 UTC with an uncertainty window totalling
very much less than 80 minutes. Indeed, the latter suggests that
SpaceCom is the only organisation uncertain of where around its
orbit Mir came down.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #22233 = 92- 79 C = GPS 2-16 r2 (PAD-D)
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 23 18:04 Mar 24 13:05 +-12h 34.4 N 39.6 E
SatEvo Mar 23 20:50 Mar 24 17:43 +-8h 15.3 N 39.8 E
Latest elset:
GPS 2-16 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 447 x 141 km
1 22233U 92079C 01082.72263879 .15568832 60763-6 13411-2 0 8249
2 22233 34.5264 338.5200 0229657 116.0480 247.6657 15.92924400209048
SatEvo prediction: See Decay watch page.
..(ends)
GPS 2-16 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 218 x 124 km
1 22233U 92079C 01083.65204605 .66338252 16182+1 98662-3 0 98242
2 22233 34.5170 331.8315 0071537 125.7656 234.9017 16.38079154209194
GPS 2-16 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 3.1 164 x 113 km
1 22233U 92079C 01083.71273776 1.83019609 42577+2 10615-2 0 98245
2 22233 34.5139 331.3737 0039322 126.4308 233.9324 16.50420760209209
Note: The latest elset shows this running 71 sec early against
yesterday's prediction and implies (improbably) that the perigee
height has increased by some 9 km in the preceding 32 hours. My
new estimate is for decay southbound over the Red Sea.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #23951 = 96- 40 D = Arabsat 2A Spelda
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 23 10:48 Mar 25 09:59 +-1d 5.1 S 68.9 W
SatEvo (not predicted)
Latest elset:
Arabsat 2A Spelda 772 x 145 km
1 23951U 96040D 01082.60297679 .24073067 -29129-4 47338-2 0 5963
2 23951 6.8638 49.7717 0458356 202.8243 143.1017 15.35731718 72771
Note: This appears to have been lost for 10 days until it was
recovered yesterday - I cannot get a satisfactory SatEvo evolution
through the few recent elsets available.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #26059 = 00- 3 B = Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Mar 23 09:18 Mar 23 09:06 +-29m 18.0 S 90.1 E
SatEvo Mar 23 21:00 Mar 23 08:58 -10m+20m 22.3 S 73.1 E
Final elset:
Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r 282 x 94 km
1 26059U 00003B 01082.34602905 .99999999 -13232-4 99244-3 0 5653
2 26059 24.5675 91.9516 0142876 288.0367 203.7959 16.31716392 12722
Note: The latest elset has this 72 sec early against yesterday's
prediction. I show it decaying northbound over the Indian Ocean
soon after perigee on the above orbit.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe'
in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org
http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Mar 23 2001 - 13:49:26 PST