SatEvo decay list #113 (issued 2001 March 3) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 April 30, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for some 8,400 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ---- Decay (2001) ---- Predicted Actual? 8432 72- 58 FM Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February 11.0 25076 96- 49 H Fast Pegasus deb February 11.1 3687 68- 97 AE Cosmos 252 deb February 14.1 22986 94- 8 F Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 15.6 23419 94- 77 K Cosmos 2297 deb February 15.8 26537 83- 44 FR Cosmos 1461 deb February 15.9 25314 98- 24 D Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 18.04 25720 89-100 BR C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb February 17.4 26600 00- 69 B Beidou-1 LM3 r February 19.58 16125 85- 91 D Molniya 3-26 r2 February 19.90 20094 89- 48 F Raduga 1-1 aux motor February 20.61 26328 99- 57 HM CBERS LM4 deb February 22.5 26710 00- 19 E SESat aux motor February 24.54 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 February 22.01 26714 01- 8 B Progress M-44 Soyuz r February 28.10 26717 95- 37 L Glonass 74 Proton deb February 28.2 22521 93- 11 A Astro D March 2.20 26704 01- 7 C Odin Start-1 deb March 2.6 Note 1 26712 01- 7 J Odin Start-1 deb March 3.0 Note 1 23019 94- 14 A Koronas 1 March 4 17152 86- 19 AF Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb March 6 26062 00- 4 B OCS March 6 26705 01- 7 D Odin Start-1 deb March 6 26709 01- 7 H Odin Start-1 deb March 6 4215 69- 82 CE OPS 1807 ThAg deb March 7 12948 81- 53 EC Cosmos 1275 deb March 7 26327 99- 57 HL CBERS LM4 deb March 8 26706 01- 7 E Odin Start-1 deb March 8 4620 70- 89 G Cosmos 374 deb March 9 14361 81- 53 HX Cosmos 1275 deb March 9 26538 00- 56 A Cosmos 2372 March 10 Note 3 4623 70- 91 C Cosmos 375 deb March 13 26707 01- 7 F Odin Start-1 deb March 14 9968 61- 15 KQ Transit 4A deb March 15 26059 00- 3 B Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r March 16 24217 94- 29 KQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 17 26399 00- 36 F Cosmos 2371 aux motor March 17 22466 92- 93 FF Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb March 18 19733 88-115 D Molniya 1-74 r2 March 19? 26691 01- 4 B GPS 2R-7 Delta 2 r March 19 23951 96- 40 D Arabsat 2A Spelda March 24 24441 94- 29 SX STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 25 23029 94- 16 C GPS 2-24 r2 March 26 26173 99- 57 BK CBERS LM4 deb March 28 22233 92- 79 C GPS 2-16 r2 March 28 16609 86- 17 A Mir April 1 Note 2 26326 99- 57 HK CBERS LM4 deb April 1 23281 94- 61 C Cosmos 2292 deb April 2 26177 99- 57 BP CBERS LM4 deb April 4 24385 94- 29 QN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 6 20471 88- 93 C Cosmos 1975 deb April 8 25013 97- 63 A STEP M4 April 8 23133 94- 35 B UHF F/O 3 r April 9 462 61- 15 EY Transit 4A deb April 10 22464 92- 93 FD Cosmos 2272 Zenit deb April 10 21840 70- 25 QL Nimbus 4 ThAg deb April 11 15957 85- 70 E Raduga 16 aux motor April 14 5034 70- 89 E Cosmos 374 deb April 20 25392 98- 42 D Tubsat N SSN-23 deb April 20 26176 99- 57 BN CBERS LM4 deb April 20 26161 99- 57 AX CBERS LM4 deb April 23 24099 94- 29 EW STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 25 26271 99- 57 FH CBERS LM4 deb April 26 5143 71- 31 B Meteor 1-8 r April 27 10960 77- 53 B NTS 2 Altas r May 14 25107 97- 82 D Iridium 48 May 31 11252 79- 5 B Meteor 1-29 r June 11458 79- 67 B Cosmos 1116 r June 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 June 26502 00- 49 G Raduga-1 5 aux motor July 22048 92- 43 F Gorizont 26 aux motor August 22933 93- 78 D DBS 1 r August 23099 94- 27 A SROSS-C2 August 23172 94- 38 E Cosmos 2282 aux motor August 11266 79- 11 A Cosmos 1076 September Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its current orbit. In fact, it is planned to deorbit it over the Pacific between March 13 and 18. 3. #26538 = Cosmos 2372 has been manoeuvred several times during its lifetime, the last manoeuvre being downwards on March 1 when it was already lower than at any previous time. The estimate assumes a natural decay from its current orbit. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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