SatEvo decay list #113

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Mar 03 2001 - 09:40:29 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #113 (issued 2001 March 3)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2001 April 30, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for some 8,400 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name               ---- Decay (2001) ----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
      8432   72- 58 FM  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb          February 11.0
     25076   96- 49 H   Fast Pegasus deb               February 11.1
      3687   68- 97 AE  Cosmos 252 deb                 February 14.1
     22986   94-  8 F   Raduga 1-3 Proton deb          February 15.6
     23419   94- 77 K   Cosmos 2297 deb                February 15.8
     26537   83- 44 FR  Cosmos 1461 deb                February 15.9
     25314   98- 24 D   Nilesat Ariane Spelda          February 18.04
     25720   89-100 BR  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb           February 17.4
     26600   00- 69 B   Beidou-1 LM3 r                 February 19.58
     16125   85- 91 D   Molniya 3-26 r2                February 19.90
     20094   89- 48 F   Raduga 1-1 aux motor           February 20.61
     26328   99- 57 HM  CBERS LM4 deb                  February 22.5
     26710   00- 19 E   SESat aux motor                February 24.54
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26                   February 22.01
     26714   01-  8 B   Progress M-44 Soyuz r          February 28.10
     26717   95- 37 L   Glonass 74 Proton deb          February 28.2
     22521   93- 11 A   Astro D                           March  2.20
     26704   01-  7 C   Odin Start-1 deb                  March  2.6  Note 1
     26712   01-  7 J   Odin Start-1 deb                  March  3.0  Note 1
     23019   94- 14 A   Koronas 1                March  4
     17152   86- 19 AF  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      March  6
     26062   00-  4 B   OCS                      March  6
     26705   01-  7 D   Odin Start-1 deb         March  6
     26709   01-  7 H   Odin Start-1 deb         March  6
      4215   69- 82 CE  OPS 1807 ThAg deb        March  7
     12948   81- 53 EC  Cosmos 1275 deb          March  7
     26327   99- 57 HL  CBERS LM4 deb            March  8
     26706   01-  7 E   Odin Start-1 deb         March  8
      4620   70- 89 G   Cosmos 374 deb           March  9
     14361   81- 53 HX  Cosmos 1275 deb          March  9
     26538   00- 56 A   Cosmos 2372              March 10 Note 3
      4623   70- 91 C   Cosmos 375 deb           March 13
     26707   01-  7 F   Odin Start-1 deb         March 14
      9968   61- 15 KQ  Transit 4A deb           March 15
     26059   00-  3 B   Zhongxing-22 CZ-3A r     March 16
     24217   94- 29 KQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 17
     26399   00- 36 F   Cosmos 2371 aux motor    March 17
     22466   92- 93 FF  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    March 18
     19733   88-115 D   Molniya 1-74 r2          March 19?
     26691   01-  4 B   GPS 2R-7 Delta 2 r       March 19
     23951   96- 40 D   Arabsat 2A Spelda        March 24
     24441   94- 29 SX  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 25
     23029   94- 16 C   GPS 2-24 r2              March 26
     26173   99- 57 BK  CBERS LM4 deb            March 28
     22233   92- 79 C   GPS 2-16 r2              March 28
     16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      April  1 Note 2
     26326   99- 57 HK  CBERS LM4 deb            April  1
     23281   94- 61 C   Cosmos 2292 deb          April  2
     26177   99- 57 BP  CBERS LM4 deb            April  4
     24385   94- 29 QN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  6
     20471   88- 93 C   Cosmos 1975 deb          April  8
     25013   97- 63 A   STEP M4                  April  8
     23133   94- 35 B   UHF F/O 3 r              April  9
       462   61- 15 EY  Transit 4A deb           April 10
     22464   92- 93 FD  Cosmos 2272 Zenit deb    April 10
     21840   70- 25 QL  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb        April 11
     15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor      April 14
      5034   70- 89 E   Cosmos 374 deb           April 20
     25392   98- 42 D   Tubsat N SSN-23 deb      April 20
     26176   99- 57 BN  CBERS LM4 deb            April 20
     26161   99- 57 AX  CBERS LM4 deb            April 23
     24099   94- 29 EW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 25
     26271   99- 57 FH  CBERS LM4 deb            April 26
      5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r             April 27
     10960   77- 53 B   NTS 2 Altas r              May 14
     25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48                 May 31
     11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r             June
     11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r             June
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2           June
     26502   00- 49 G   Raduga-1 5 aux motor      July
     22048   92- 43 F   Gorizont 26 aux motor   August
     22933   93- 78 D   DBS 1 r                 August
     23099   94- 27 A   SROSS-C2                August
     23172   94- 38 E   Cosmos 2282 aux motor   August
     11266   79- 11 A   Cosmos 1076          September
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its
    current orbit. In fact, it is planned to deorbit it over the Pacific
    between March 13 and 18.
    
    3. #26538 = Cosmos 2372 has been manoeuvred several times during its
    lifetime, the last manoeuvre being downwards on March 1 when it was
    already lower than at any previous time. The estimate assumes a 
    natural decay from its current orbit.
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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