SatEvo decay list #96

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Mar 31 2000 - 12:05:01 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #96  (issued 2000 March 31)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 May 15, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     18590   71- 15 DJ  Cosmos 397 deb                    March 18.5
     25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r               March 19.78
     15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64                      March 22.23
     24389   94- 29 QS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 22.9
     24143   94- 29 GS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 23.4
     11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093                       March 23.80
     24112   94- 29 FK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 24.5
     20854   90- 81 S   FY-1B CZ deb                      March 25.26
     20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r             March 26.25
     19028   69- 82 LC  Thorad Agena D deb                March 26.3
     24618   94- 29 ZW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 26.5
     24358   94- 29 PK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 28.2
     24139   94- 29 GN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 29.4
     17630   81- 53 LC  Cosmos 1275 deb                   March 30.4 Note 1
     26112   99- 57 D   CBERS LM4 deb                     March 31.1 Note 1
     25393   98- 42 E   Tubsat N SSN-23 deb               March 31.4 Note 1
     22457   92- 93 EW  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    March 31.7
     25709   89-100 BE  Cosmos 2053 Tsyklon deb  April  1
     24150   94- 29 GZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  2
     24314   96- 55 B   Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r  April  3
      5714   68- 91 CB  Cosmos 249 deb           April  6
     20966   90-104 A   Cosmos 2106              April  7
     24062   94- 29 DK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  8
     20968   90- 81 CA  FY-1B CZ deb             April 11
     24342   94- 29 NT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 11
     23417   94- 77 H   Cosmos 2297 deb          April 12
     25137   98-  2 D   Skynet 4D Delta deb      April 12
     16084   79- 17 AM  Solwind deb              April 13
     24540   94- 29 WQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 13
     24879   96- 51 K   Cosmos 2333 Zenit deb    April 13
     25223   87- 68 BA  Meteor 2-16 Tsyklon deb  April 13
     19435   86- 19 UY  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      April 20
     20704   90- 54 E   Gorizont 20 aux motor    April 20
     25906   93- 59 J   Cosmos 2263 Proton deb   April 21
     15983   85- 74 D   Molniya 1-64 r2          April 23
     22482   92- 93 FX  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    April 23
     24686   94- 29 AAU STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 24
     17201   86- 19 BD  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      April 25
      4601   70- 25 D   Thorad Agena D deb       April 26
     20338   89- 94 A   Molniya 3-36             April 26?
     24982   94- 29 ACQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 28
     25056   64- 26 J   Transit 9 deb            April 28 Note 2
     13577   78- 26 FQ  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb    April 30
     23834   96- 19 B   GPS 2-25 Delta 2 r1        May  1
     22507   92- 93 GS  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb      May  2
     22033   92- 41 D   Insat 2A Spelda            May  3
     24033   94- 29 CE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  3
      5021   70- 89 X   Cosmos 374 deb             May  4
     24153   94- 29 HC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  4
     24579   94- 29 YF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  6
      4029   61- 15 JR  Transit 4A deb             May  8
     22412   92- 93 DD  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb      May  9
     23996   94- 29 AR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May  9
      3962   68- 91 BW  Cosmos 249 deb             May 10
     24187   94- 29 JN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb         May 11
     13576   78- 26 FP  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb      May 12
     26114   00- 17 B   IMAGE Delta 2 r1           May 12
       603   63- 22 B   Scout X-3 r                May 15
     26085   00-  8 E   Globalstar A Delta r       May 15
     25235   98- 12 C   SNOE Pegasus r             May 19
     10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r               May 20
     22726   93- 48 D   Insat 2B Spelda            May 22
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145               June  5
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               June 10
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077               June 10
     24771   97- 16 D   Thaicom 3 Spelda          June 10
     16934   86- 68 A   Molniya 1-68              June
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r            June
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor     June
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r             June
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2           July
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2       July
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird                July
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)     August
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux mot  September
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor  September
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r               September
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2    October
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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