Decay watch: 2000 Mar 24

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Mar 24 2000 - 12:18:50 PST

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    #11331 = 79- 32 A = Cosmos 1093
    
    As I reported yesterday, my calculations suggest that decay was most
    likely at Mar 23 19:10 +-30m near 4.1 S, 92.6 E, on the approach to a
    northbound crossing to the W of Sumatra, Indonesia. If it had survived 
    long enough, then there would have been a southbound pass over Canada 
    and the USA from Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, at 19:41 UTC, passing just E
    of Denver, Colorado, at 19:44 and over Lubbock, Texas, at 19:46.
    SpaceCom's final analysis places the decay only a little further on, 
    close to Mexico City near 20.7 N, 100.0 W, at Mar 23 19:45 +-2h.
    However, this would have been uncertain by only a small number of
    minutes, and not the 2 hours quoted, if it had been tracked as it
    crossed the USA on that pass. Given the attention that this was
    receiving near the end, with at least one elset issued for each of the
    preceding five orbits, the absence of an elset for that orbit is further
    evidence that it had already decayed before it crossed N America.
    
    
    #20919 = 90- 93 B = Inmarsat 2-1 Delta 2 rocket
    
    SpaceCom has still to revise the prediction it posted yesterday for
    decay at Mar 25 04:04 +-1d at 13.1 N, 150.3 W. I continue to predict a
    much later decay, now at Mar 26 09:28 +-11h.
    
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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