We now have three objects for which SpaceCom is posting decay warnings... #11331 = 79- 32 A = Cosmos 1093 Both SpaceCom and SatEvo show this decay slipping by several hours. SpaceCom's latest estimate is for decay at Mar 24 03:53 UTC +-2d near 37.3 S, 44.2 W, while I show Mar 23 18:27 +-15h. The latest elset reads: Cosmos 1093 5.0 1.5 0.0 5.4 v 11 216 x 205 km 1 11331U 79032A 00081.54684795 .02423419 -95736-6 97728-3 0 4035 2 11331 81.1911 205.4475 0008548 279.3406 170.6228 16.23437604154085 #15977 = 85- 74 A = Molniya 1-64 In its first warning, SpaceCom predicts this decay for Mar 22 02:28 +-7h at 37.4 S, 103.9 W. I predict decay for Mar 22 02:20 +-4h at 51.7 S, 121.3 W. The latest elset is: Molniya 1-64 1873 x 85 km 1 15977U 85074A 00081.57876094 .99999999 16554-4 13868-2 0 1726 2 15977 61.8782 137.7940 1214957 264.5277 182.9911 13.75850974 53756 while the end of my orbital evolution reads... Molniya 1-64 977 x 83 km 1 15977U 85074A 00081.97839852 2.62640637 34393+1 19518-2 0 91729 2 15977 61.8171 136.5112 0646606 264.6814 87.9127 15.12090088 53818 Molniya 1-64 740 x 82 km 1 15977U 85074A 00082.04404500 3.62446695 78427+1 20933-2 0 91724 2 15977 61.8053 136.2690 0484570 264.7111 89.7434 15.52155755 53825 Molniya 1-64 381 x 77 km 1 15977U 85074A 00082.10783496 7.95050517 50000+2 23491-2 0 91729 2 15977 61.7796 136.0165 0229969 264.7423 92.6296 16.16598688 53835 I judge that this will decay beyond the perigee of the penultimate predicted orbit, above, but the drag will be too high for it to reach the final predicted northbound equator crossing. I put decay over the far S Pacific, just a little before SpaceCom's decay point. #20919 = 90- 93 B = Inmarsat 2-1 Delta 2 rocket My updated estimate is for decay at Mar 26 06:37 +-1.2d. More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Mar 21 2000 - 12:51:24 PST