Decay watch: 2000 Mar 19 #1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Mar 19 2000 - 01:28:43 PST

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    #25965 = 99- 62 E = Globalstar 29 Soyuz r1
    
    This has moved sharply ahead of my prediction in the past few hours so
    that the latest elset...
    
    Globlstr 29 r1   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   15       213 x 148 km
    1 25965U 99062E   00079.29871103  .10865404  11811-4  67137-3 0  2297
    2 25965  51.9271 105.7137 0049493 127.4322 233.1514 16.34343968 18137
    
    ...has it running 9 seconds early after only 6 orbits. I now place the
    decay at Mar 19 19:34 +-3h near a southbound equator crossing at 171.4
    E, over the W Pacific to the N of New Zealand. The orbit takes it
    northwards over the equator at 18:51 UTC near 2.6 deg E. It then crosses
    Africa from Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, at 18:53 to W Egypt at 19:01. It is
    over Turkey at 19:03, on its way to N apex over S-Central Russia
    (Novokuznetsk) at 19:13. It is on this stretch that SpaceCom places the
    decay at Mar 19 19:09 +-7h near 42.3 N, 44.2 E. The track continues to
    cross NE China at about 19:19 and pass just N of Tokyo, Japan, at 19:23,
    which is close to perigee.
    
    My predicted elsets for the final revs:
    Globlstr 29 r1   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   15       157 x 125 km
    1 25965U 99062E   00079.72514886  .38993235  87426+0  35446-3 0 92298
    2 25965  51.9230 103.3181 0023960 129.1832 231.0297 16.49376220 18207
    Globlstr 29 r1   6.0  3.0  0.0  4.5 d   15       135 x 115 km
    1 25965U 99062E   00079.78562143  .73434659  44476+1  32751-3 0 92297
    2 25965  51.9215 102.9726 0014990 129.4358 230.6969 16.55471750 18212
    
    More details at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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