John locker <satcom@cybase.co.uk> writes >Sighted at 1912 gmt over the Wirral tonight (March 18th ) , north west >England, travelling roughly North / South, slow moving "trailing" fireball >possibly meteor . >Any thoughts on a re-entry ? Only one decay was predicted for today, March 18, in the SatEvo decay list I posted yesterday. This is/was for #18590 = 71- 15 DJ = Cosmos 397 debris. An elset issued earlier yesterday is the only one for this in the past four days: Cosmos 397 deb DJ 311 x 269 km 1 18590U 71015DJ 00077.35878848 .06832233 90084-1 23730-1 0 4194 2 18590 65.7380 69.5001 0031447 313.7455 30.9764 15.94398516443711 Linking this to earlier elsets, I get a decay at about March 18 16h UTC but with an uncertainty of several hours. If I make the slight adjustment to delay the decay until about 19:15 UTC, I derive the following predicted final elset: Cosmos 397 deb DJ 154 x 147 km 1 18590U 71015DJ 00078.79199289 3.00321449 50000+2 74361-2 0 94197 2 18590 65.7208 64.3783 0005259 312.7769 47.1789 16.45789152443948 Given the time between these two elsets, and the large change in period, this could be "out" by a few minutes. It is interesting that this final predicted elset has the object crossing NNE-wards over the UK from St George's Channel (between S Wales and Ireland) at 19:15 UTC to Newcastle-upon-Tyne at 19:16. It is a pity that the report has the fireball moving in the opposite direction :( Alan -- Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144 Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750 Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Mar 18 2000 - 13:30:46 PST