Re: Re-entry / meteor ?

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Mar 18 2000 - 13:29:25 PST

  • Next message: Harro.Zimmer: "Decay Forecast Mar 18"

    John locker <satcom@cybase.co.uk> writes
    >Sighted at 1912 gmt over the Wirral tonight (March 18th ) , north west
    >England, travelling roughly North  / South, slow moving "trailing" fireball
    >possibly meteor .
    >Any thoughts on a re-entry ?
    
    Only one decay was predicted for today, March 18, in the SatEvo decay
    list I posted yesterday. This is/was for #18590 = 71- 15 DJ = Cosmos 397
    debris.  An elset issued earlier yesterday is the only one for this in
    the past four days:
    Cosmos 397 deb DJ                                311 x 269 km
    1 18590U 71015DJ  00077.35878848  .06832233  90084-1  23730-1 0  4194
    2 18590  65.7380  69.5001 0031447 313.7455  30.9764 15.94398516443711
    
    Linking this to earlier elsets, I get a decay at about March 18 16h UTC
    but with an uncertainty of several hours. If I make the slight
    adjustment to delay the decay until about 19:15 UTC, I derive the
    following predicted final elset:
    Cosmos 397 deb DJ                                154 x 147 km
    1 18590U 71015DJ  00078.79199289 3.00321449  50000+2  74361-2 0 94197
    2 18590  65.7208  64.3783 0005259 312.7769  47.1789 16.45789152443948
    Given the time between these two elsets, and the large change in period,
    this could be "out" by a few minutes.
    
    It is interesting that this final predicted elset has the object
    crossing NNE-wards over the UK from St George's Channel (between S Wales
    and Ireland) at 19:15 UTC to Newcastle-upon-Tyne at 19:16. It is a pity
    that the report has the fireball moving in the opposite direction :(
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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