SatEvo decay list #95

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Mar 17 2000 - 15:09:02 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #95  (issued 2000 March 17)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 April 30, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     20680   74- 89 FE  Thorad Delta 1 deb             February 29.6
     22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r                     March  2.48
     24343   94- 29 NU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March  3
       179   61- 15 BD  Transit 4A deb                    March  4.2
     25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r               March  4.23
     24627   94- 29 AAF STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March  6
     24831   94- 61 E   Cosmos 2292 deb                   March  7.0
     24230   94- 29 LD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March  7
     25905   95- 58 J   Cosmos 2322 Zenit deb             March  9.4
      4134   69- 82 CW  Thorad Agena D deb                March 12.0
     23887   96- 34 F   Gorizont 32 aux motor             March 12.68
     26100   00- 13 C   Express 6-A Proton plat           March 13.05
     26099   00- 13 B   Express 6-A Proton r              March 14.21
     26060   99- 47 H   Yamal 101 aux motor               March 15.12
     24233   94- 29 LG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 16  Note 1
     24481   94- 29 UE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 16
     24612   94- 29 ZQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 16  Note 1
     18590   71- 15 DJ  Cosmos 397 deb           March 18
     25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      March 19
     24143   94- 29 GS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 22
     11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              March 23
     24389   94- 29 QS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 23
     20854   90- 81 S   FY-1B CZ deb             March 25
     24112   94- 29 FK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 25
     17630   81- 53 LC  Cosmos 1275 deb          March 26
     19028   69- 82 LC  Thorad Agena D deb       March 26
     20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r    March 26
     24139   94- 29 GN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 29
     24618   94- 29 ZW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 29
     25393   98- 42 E   Tubsat N SSN-23 deb      March 31
     15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             April  1
     22457   92- 93 EW  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    April  1
     24314   96- 55 B   Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r  April  3
     24062   94- 29 DK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  5
     25709   89-100 BE  Cosmos 2053 Tsyklon deb  April  5
     20966   90-104 A   Cosmos 2106              April  9
     24358   94- 29 PK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  9
      5714   68- 91 CB  Cosmos 249 deb           April 12
     25137   98-  2 D   Skynet 4D Delta deb      April 14
     24150   94- 29 GZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 17
     23417   94- 77 H   Cosmos 2297 deb          April 21
     25223   87- 68 BA  Meteor 2-16 Tsyklon deb  April 21
     16084   79- 17 AM  Solwind deb              April 22
     20704   90- 54 E   Gorizont 20 aux motor    April 23
     22482   92- 93 FX  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    April 25
     19435   86- 19 UY  Spot 1 Ariane 1 deb      April 28
     20968   90- 81 CA  FY-1B CZ deb             April 30
     22033   92- 41 D   Insat 2A Spelda          April 30
     20338   89- 94 A   Molniya 3-36               May  1?
     15983   85- 74 D   Molniya 1-64 r2            May  6
     23834   96- 19 B   GPS 2-25 Delta 2 r1        May  7
     10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r               May 16
     26085   00-  8 E   Globalstar A Delta r       May 20
     25235   98- 12 C   SNOE Pegasus r             May 22
     22726   93- 48 D   Insat 2B Spelda            May 29
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               June
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145               June
     16934   86- 68 A   Molniya 1-68              June
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r            June
     24771   97- 16 D   Thaicom 3 Spelda          June
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077               July
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2           July
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor     July
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r             July
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux motor   August
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2     August
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)     August
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird              August
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor  September
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                 October
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2    October
    
    Note
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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