Decay watch: 2000 Mar 9

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Mar 09 2000 - 13:48:00 PST

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    #23887 = 96- 34 F = Gorizont 32 aux motor
    
    My latest analysis shows little change to my prediction for this decay,
    now giving Mar 12 20:29 UTC +-18h. SpaceCom's time has slipped into the
    12th, but is still much earlier at Mar 12 01:21 +-2d. This is one of
    those objects which I expect to last a few extra orbits because of the
    effective decrease in drag coefficient as the perigee dips lower -
    without this (very uncertain) effect, the decay could easily be six
    hours earlier than I predict.
    
    The latest elset for this is:
    Gorizont 32 aux motor                            1036 x 133 km
    1 23887U 96034F   00069.76252627  .12542001  00000-0  10862-2 0  3507
    2 23887  46.3508 272.2443 0648717 356.2433   3.4303 14.94263451 77397
    
    As usual, there are more details, plus predicted elsets on my Decay
    Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    
    Unfortunately, a trip means that I'll probably be unable to update my
    prediction again until after the decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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