Decay watch: Mar 20 (MPL Delta)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 20 Mar 1999 23:31:42 +0000

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Object: #25607 = 99-  1 C = Mars Polar Lander Delta 2 r1

Decay prediction:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Mar 14 14:32     Mar 23 03:32 +-5d        12.3 N    67.2 W
SpaceCom   Mar 16 01:23     Mar 23 01:19 +-4d        11.5 S   149.0 E
SpaceCom   Mar 19 06:49     Mar 23 06:32 +-2d         9.1 N   105.9 W
SpaceCom   Mar 20 03:19     Mar 23 00:39 +-2d         7.6 N    11.9 W

SatEvo     Mar 15 21:20     Mar 23 01:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Mar 16 20:45     Mar 22 21:17 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Mar 19 19:30     Mar 23 03:23 +-18h       17.7 N    79.9 W
SatEvo     Mar 20 23:25     Mar 23 00:22 +-10h       23.4 N    55.3 W

Latest (OIG-published) elset:
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            284 x 179 km
1 25607U 99001C   99079.91130952  .03404229 -11125-4  12318-2 0  1520
2 25607  25.8206  29.8116 0079656  84.8436 276.1253 16.15652723 11857

SatEvo predicted elsets:
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            280 x 178 km
1 25607U 99001C   99080.03476493  .03558206  45099-2  12149-2 0 91528
2 25607  25.8205  28.8328 0077816  86.5026 274.3871 16.16540330 11879
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            264 x 172 km
1 25607U 99001C   99080.52791734  .04423216  76023-2  11779-2 0 91522
2 25607  25.8198  24.9100 0069648  93.1517 267.6456 16.20439099 11955
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            244 x 166 km
1 25607U 99001C   99081.01971909  .06021362  15267-1  11240-2 0 91524
2 25607  25.8190  20.9731 0059576  99.8247 260.8486 16.25485129 12033
...
MPL Delta 2 r1   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 d            156 x 127 km
1 25607U 99001C   99081.93569497  .50245689  21175+1  49244-3 0 91529
2 25607  25.8152  13.5261 0021654 112.4475 247.7820 16.49164352 12188

Note: The latest elset shows it running 4 seconds early against the 
SatEvo prediction I posted here yesterday.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/