Decay update: Iridium 15 Delta 2 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 26 Mar 1998 22:12:31 +0000

The latest elset from OIG for this decaying rocket is

Iridm 15 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            257 x 198 km
1 24874U 97034F   98085.60167797  .01587136 -12816-5  85860-3 0  3192
2 24874  82.6969 279.0551 0044784  98.5531 262.0752 16.17201789 40554

This shows it running 23 seconds early against the "9310" SatEvo
evolution I posted two days ago.

My prediction now is for decay at about March 30.0 +-0.5 day, some
twelve hours earlier than my previous analysis and the "official" word
posted by Keith Stein.

Predicted elsets for the coming two days, though I expect to update
tomorrow:
Iridm 15 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            250 x 195 km
1 24874U 97034F   98086.03457073  .01963376  18447-2  95372-3 0 93193
2 24874  82.6963 278.5697 0041799  96.7981 263.6776 16.18874314 40627
Iridm 15 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            242 x 192 km
1 24874U 97034F   98086.52876790  .02281966  24956-2  96341-3 0 93196
2 24874  82.6956 278.0140 0038106  94.7893 265.6457 16.20964834 40702
Iridm 15 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            233 x 188 km
1 24874U 97034F   98087.02227476  .02738676  38277-2  97093-3 0 93194
2 24874  82.6947 277.4572 0034021  92.7769 267.6126 16.23426731 40781
Iridm 15 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            221 x 183 km
1 24874U 97034F   98087.51495415  .03478294  65965-2  97965-3 0 93198
2 24874  82.6936 276.8991 0029382  90.7599 269.5767 16.26456610 40863
Iridm 15 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            207 x 176 km
1 24874U 97034F   98088.00658106  .04906136  14295-1  98852-3 0 93198
2 24874  82.6922 276.3393 0023869  88.7373 271.5361 16.30488337 40948

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/