SatEvo decay list #50

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 21 Mar 1998 19:56:04 +0000

SatEvo decay list #50  (issued 1998 March 21)

This list of satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses 
brings me to the half-century - my first SatEvo decay list was 
published via the SeeSat-L mailing list on 1996 March 26. In 
addition, this is the first to appear on the satellite observers' 
newsgroup sci.astro.satellite.visual-observe as well as SeeSat-L. 
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
   http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html

As in my earlier lists, the "Actual" decay dates are my estimates
based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the 
object's final days. In some cases, I am able to give an improved
estimate to a decimal part of a day, so that, for example, day 21.43
corresponds to the 21st at about 10:20 UTC. Beware, though, that
they are only estimates and even the most accurate could still be 
wrong by one hour or more.

Pegasus debris objects are included here if I anticipate their decay 
by April 30. Other objects are included to May 31, although I include
several larger and/or more interesting decayers beyond that date. 
Decay dates have moved earlier since my previous list on March 7;
there was a large increase in atmospheric drag around March 11 as 
sunspot activity reached its highest levels of the current solar
cycle.

This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via 
my SatEvo page at
               http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay 
objects below, together with other objects of interest, including 
Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued 
objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at
        ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/
and are updated several times daily.


   #    Designation    Name               ----- Decay (1998) -----
                                            Predicted   Actual?

 24078   94- 29 DZ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March  7
 24399   94- 29 RC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 12
 25242   98- 10 H   Iridium 50 deb                    March 13
 25005   97- 59 B   Echostar 3 Centaur r              March 15.33
 25257   98- 15 B   Progress M-38 Soyuz r             March 16.87
 22855   89- 89 AS  COBE deb                          March 18?   Note 1
 25011   97- 62 B   Apstar 2R CZ-3B r                 March 18.78
 18364   87- 78 F   Ariane 3 deb                      March 20.90
 24900   97- 41 F   C2345 SOZ ullage r                March 21.43
 24417   94- 29 RW  STEP-2 Pegasus deb                March 21
 22587   93- 11 E   M-3S2 deb                March 23.6
 22774   89- 89 AK  COBE deb                 March 25
 24548   94- 29 WY  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 25
 23896   86- 17 KP  Mir deb                  March 26
 24874   97- 34 F   Iridium 15 Delta r       March 30
 24079   94- 29 EA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  1
 24353   94- 29 PE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  3
 19297   76-103 F   Cosmos 860 deb           April  5
 24144   94- 29 GT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  7
 24364   94- 29 PR  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April  9
 25140   86- 17 MK  Mir deb                  April  9
 25238   98- 13 B   Hot Bird 4 Ariane r      April  9
 24041   94- 29 CN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 11
 25207   87- 68 AJ  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb    April 11
 19380   88- 69 D   Molniya 1-73 r2          April 15?  Note 2
 24188   94- 29 JP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 16
 24574   94- 29 YA  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 16
 21892   92-  9 C   Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D)    April 21   Note 3
 24615   94- 29 ZT  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       April 21
 25142   86- 17 ML  Mir deb                  April 21
 23193   94- 47 B   DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r    April 23
 20132   88- 98 C   Ariane 2 deb C           April 25
 24970   97- 56 F   Iridium 19 Delta r       April 25   Note 4
 23063   89- 89 BJ  COBE deb                   May  3
 25250   87- 68 BT  Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb      May 12
 22943   83- 75 AG  Cosmos 1484 deb            May 14
 23910   86- 17 KY  Mir deb                    May 19
 25044   97- 69 F   Iridium 43 Delta r         May 21
 21895   92- 10 C   Superbird B1 Ariane r      May 23
 22852   89- 89 AP  COBE deb                   May 25
 21057   91-  3 C   Italsat 1 Ariane r         May 26
 24787   97- 19 B   GOES 10 Centaur r          May 27
 24958   97- 58 C   Sputnik-40                 May 29
 12519   81- 54 E   Molniya 3-16 r2           July
 24294   96- 50 D   Interbol 2 Molniya-M r    July
 24649   96- 62 B   Mars GS Delta 2 r         July
 25109   97- 82 F   Iridium 45 Delta r        July
 23549   95- 18 A   Ofeq 3                  August
 25174   98- 10 F   Iridium 50 Delta r   September


Notes

1. #22855 (89- 89 AS = COBE deb). No elsets since March 1 - probably
lost and already decayed.

2. #19380 (88- 69 D = Molniya 1-73 r2). USSPACECOM appeared to lose this
between February 28 and March 13 when they published some suspect elsets
and promptly lost it again. The above decay prediction is little more
than a guess; the perigee is still being forced down strongly by luni-
solar gravitational effects.

3. #21892 (92-  9 C = Navstar 24 r2) was incorrectly identified as
92- 19 C last time.

4. #24970 (97- 56 F = Iridium 19 Delta r) was incorrectly identified
as (another) Iridium 15 Delta r last time.


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:      alan@wingar.demon.co.uk       +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/