Re: 96-054 B, 2nd Obs

Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Sun, 16 Mar 1997 16:51:24 +0100

>At 05:35:44.4 UT (+/- 0.2 sec) on 16 Mar 96.
>
>RA 06:49:09 (H:M:S) (+/- 3 S)
>DEC -15:23.7 (D:M.M) (+/- 0.2 M)
>
I tried using the 97074.87 OIG elset and modify ndot2 to make SatEvo
orbit for 97075.22. I am not very confident about the result - it
gives a prediction 4.6 seconds after Ron's first obs, and 0.4 before
his second, and an ndot2 larger than I expected. :

Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           3301 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.22140862 1.45934423  39013+0  41130-2 0 90860
2 24316  25.1477  85.5873 1983858 273.2047  64.4327 11.96149724  9051

Decay prediction for this orbit is 97075.94     

If it does survive to the perigee of the last orbit given below
(or one-two later!) it could decay over northern Australia or
N of New Zeeland around 09:00-12:00 AM local time

Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           1854 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.69225403 2.74103743  21585+1  52550-2 0 90866
2 24316  25.1017  83.2948 1195104 277.1278  69.4634 13.76970011  9111
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           1552 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.76405605 3.36952271  36591+1  57854-2 0 90860
2 24316  25.0902  82.8763 1010763 277.8442  70.8186 14.20437654  9120
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           1205 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.83355788 4.36370817  75063+1  64094-2 0 90866
2 24316  25.0793  82.4417 0788881 278.5883  72.5583 14.73367978  9139
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           759 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.90040050 7.28898592  30510+2  80249-2 0 90865
2 24316  25.0691  81.9847 0487536 279.3708  75.1522 15.46326322  9147



An orbit starting from a lower ndot is :
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           3324 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.22173986 1.40986902  39344+0  39937-2 0 90866
2 24316  25.1485  85.5888 1995575 273.2023  64.3057 11.93528788  9056

Decay prediction  97075.97 

Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           1929 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.69460044 2.54799636  18941+1  50117-2 0 90867
2 24316  25.1021  83.3067 1240064 277.1073  68.9889 13.66433146  9116
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           1645 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.76699602 3.06408107  30788+1  54629-2 0 90862
2 24316  25.0939  82.8922 1068543 277.8168  70.2055 14.06751276  9123
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           1323 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.83722788 3.85632012  50151+1  60206-2 0 90867
2 24316  25.0841  82.4631 0865640 278.5515  71.7467 14.54954212  9136
Centaur r modified        4151 x 96 km           935 x 96 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.90500819 5.57403890  15717+2  70373-2 0 90861
2 24316  25.0716  82.0150 0608660 279.3189  73.8532 15.16802149  9149


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