Re: 96 54B, Decay soon. Need elements

Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Sat, 15 Mar 1997 22:09:37 +0100

>This object has a good pass over Colorado tonight but I need
>better predictive elsets due to the huge drag term.
>
>Ron Lee

I have only graphed the latest elsets, and found that the last 9 elsets
give a rather smooth fit to my usual log function.

The elset corrected with ndot2 and ndotdot6 from the curve is:
Estimated SGP set
1 24316U 96054B   97074.59427556 1.06300000  16200-0  37000-2 0   821
2 24316  25.2404  88.0107 2649911 269.3199  60.7725 10.50377322  8982
The latest set =
1 24316U 96054B   97074.59427556  .89217835 -20851-4  32485-2 0   821
2 24316  25.2404  88.0107 2649911 269.3199  60.7725 10.50377322  8982
SatEvo from estimated SGP set                    3374 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.13341694 1.57757643  52365+0  43942-2 0 90820
2 24316  25.1949  85.9845 2020505 272.7828  64.4168 11.88144581  9040

The culmination for your location is approximately :

UT  SGP4  Colorado?          UT  SGP  Colorado?   
Mar 16 03:42 (Mar 15 20:42)  03:42    20:42   Latest set
Mar 16 03:37 (Mar 15 20:37)  03:32    20:32   Estimated set
Mar 16 03:30 (Mar 15 20:37)  03:30    20:30   SatEvo
, which may indicate that I increased Bstar too much, but if you use all
- in SkyMap? - you will have some latitude for prediction errors.

The extrapolation function gives the following values:

Epoch      MM         ndot2     ndotdot6
97074.00    9.38304   0.83615   0.10008
97074.10    9.55335   0.86729   0.10768
97074.20    9.73012   0.90085   0.11617
97074.30    9.91387   0.93710   0.12571
97074.40   10.10516   0.97639   0.13647
97074.50   10.30465   1.01913   0.14868
97074.60   10.51307   1.06577   0.16260
97074.70   10.73126   1.11689   0.17857
97074.80   10.96017   1.17316   0.19701
97074.90   11.20092   1.23540   0.21847
97075.00   11.45479   1.30461   0.24364
97075.10   11.72331   1.38204   0.27342
97075.20   12.00826   1.46924   0.30901
97075.30   12.31179   1.56819   0.35203
97075.40   12.63649   1.68142   0.40470
97075.50   12.98553   1.81228   0.47015
97075.60   13.36287   1.96523   0.55285
97075.70   13.77349   2.14637   0.65947

-----------------------------
        SatEvo v0.27
       by Alan Pickup
   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk
-----------------------------

Element evolution for object 96054B  

Predicted decay after    1.2126 days on date =   97075.8069 (1997 March 16)

 Uses Q-factor of 1.000000

Estimated SGP set                                4763 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97074.59423124 1.06297401  19549+0  38605-2 0 90820
2 24316  25.2404  88.0108 2649955 269.3196  60.6047 10.50367899  8982
Estimated SGP set                                4537 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97074.68866647 1.12189025  22304+0  39170-2 0 90821
2 24316  25.2333  87.6870 2554067 269.8730  61.1691 10.70987929  8998
Estimated SGP set                                4309 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97074.78127448 1.18852361  25737+0  39828-2 0 90820
2 24316  25.2259  87.3580 2455294 270.4352  61.7545 10.92368991  9003
Estimated SGP set                                4080 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97074.87205894 1.26462282  30092+0  40606-2 0 90826
2 24316  25.2183  87.0237 2353178 271.0066  62.3657 11.14621523  9012
Estimated SGP set                                3848 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97074.96101785 1.35251404  35744+0  41534-2 0 90822
2 24316  25.2103  86.6836 2247161 271.5879  63.0082 11.37881014  9024
Estimated SGP set                                3613 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.04814268 1.45535709  43287+0  42636-2 0 90828
2 24316  25.2019  86.3373 2136559 272.1797  63.6870 11.62316719  9032
Estimated SGP set                                3374 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.13341694 1.57757643  52365+0  43942-2 0 90820
2 24316  25.1949  85.9845 2020505 272.7828  64.4168 11.88144581  9040
Estimated SGP set                                3129 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.21681585 1.70713516  56543+0  45068-2 0 90824
2 24316  25.1856  85.6246 1898379 273.3983  65.1965 12.15523794  9051
Estimated SGP set                                2880 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.29831657 1.86198337  71691+0  46393-2 0 90827
2 24316  25.1777  85.2568 1769854 274.0270  66.0323 12.44561437  9065
Estimated SGP set                                2623 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.37789080 2.05772296  94676+0  48110-2 0 90829
2 24316  25.1693  84.8807 1633226 274.6703  66.9418 12.75680125  9078
Estimated SGP set                                2355 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.45549128 2.31515726  13246+1  50371-2 0 90824
2 24316  25.1601  84.4951 1485980 275.3298  67.9523 13.09506334  9088
Estimated SGP set                                2071 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.53104364 2.67380980  19074+1  53571-2 0 90823
2 24316  25.1525  84.0987 1324111 276.0077  69.1003 13.47021971  9098
Estimated SGP set                                1763 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.60443003 3.21728055  33106+1  58107-2 0 90829
2 24316  25.1410  83.6900 1140917 276.7069  70.4632 13.89924810  9104
Estimated SGP set                                1412 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.67545683 4.10876608  55161+1  64772-2 0 90820
2 24316  25.1304  83.2658 0923068 277.4327  72.1865 14.41500943  9116
Estimated SGP set                                989 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B   97075.74380058 5.95912377  18024+2  74867-2 0 90823
2 24316  25.1166  82.8214 0646112 278.1931  74.5343 15.08075201  9122

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