Re: 96 54B, Decay soon. Need elements
Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Sat, 15 Mar 1997 22:09:37 +0100
>This object has a good pass over Colorado tonight but I need
>better predictive elsets due to the huge drag term.
>
>Ron Lee
I have only graphed the latest elsets, and found that the last 9 elsets
give a rather smooth fit to my usual log function.
The elset corrected with ndot2 and ndotdot6 from the curve is:
Estimated SGP set
1 24316U 96054B 97074.59427556 1.06300000 16200-0 37000-2 0 821
2 24316 25.2404 88.0107 2649911 269.3199 60.7725 10.50377322 8982
The latest set =
1 24316U 96054B 97074.59427556 .89217835 -20851-4 32485-2 0 821
2 24316 25.2404 88.0107 2649911 269.3199 60.7725 10.50377322 8982
SatEvo from estimated SGP set 3374 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.13341694 1.57757643 52365+0 43942-2 0 90820
2 24316 25.1949 85.9845 2020505 272.7828 64.4168 11.88144581 9040
The culmination for your location is approximately :
UT SGP4 Colorado? UT SGP Colorado?
Mar 16 03:42 (Mar 15 20:42) 03:42 20:42 Latest set
Mar 16 03:37 (Mar 15 20:37) 03:32 20:32 Estimated set
Mar 16 03:30 (Mar 15 20:37) 03:30 20:30 SatEvo
, which may indicate that I increased Bstar too much, but if you use all
- in SkyMap? - you will have some latitude for prediction errors.
The extrapolation function gives the following values:
Epoch MM ndot2 ndotdot6
97074.00 9.38304 0.83615 0.10008
97074.10 9.55335 0.86729 0.10768
97074.20 9.73012 0.90085 0.11617
97074.30 9.91387 0.93710 0.12571
97074.40 10.10516 0.97639 0.13647
97074.50 10.30465 1.01913 0.14868
97074.60 10.51307 1.06577 0.16260
97074.70 10.73126 1.11689 0.17857
97074.80 10.96017 1.17316 0.19701
97074.90 11.20092 1.23540 0.21847
97075.00 11.45479 1.30461 0.24364
97075.10 11.72331 1.38204 0.27342
97075.20 12.00826 1.46924 0.30901
97075.30 12.31179 1.56819 0.35203
97075.40 12.63649 1.68142 0.40470
97075.50 12.98553 1.81228 0.47015
97075.60 13.36287 1.96523 0.55285
97075.70 13.77349 2.14637 0.65947
-----------------------------
SatEvo v0.27
by Alan Pickup
alan@wingar.demon.co.uk
-----------------------------
Element evolution for object 96054B
Predicted decay after 1.2126 days on date = 97075.8069 (1997 March 16)
Uses Q-factor of 1.000000
Estimated SGP set 4763 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97074.59423124 1.06297401 19549+0 38605-2 0 90820
2 24316 25.2404 88.0108 2649955 269.3196 60.6047 10.50367899 8982
Estimated SGP set 4537 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97074.68866647 1.12189025 22304+0 39170-2 0 90821
2 24316 25.2333 87.6870 2554067 269.8730 61.1691 10.70987929 8998
Estimated SGP set 4309 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97074.78127448 1.18852361 25737+0 39828-2 0 90820
2 24316 25.2259 87.3580 2455294 270.4352 61.7545 10.92368991 9003
Estimated SGP set 4080 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97074.87205894 1.26462282 30092+0 40606-2 0 90826
2 24316 25.2183 87.0237 2353178 271.0066 62.3657 11.14621523 9012
Estimated SGP set 3848 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97074.96101785 1.35251404 35744+0 41534-2 0 90822
2 24316 25.2103 86.6836 2247161 271.5879 63.0082 11.37881014 9024
Estimated SGP set 3613 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.04814268 1.45535709 43287+0 42636-2 0 90828
2 24316 25.2019 86.3373 2136559 272.1797 63.6870 11.62316719 9032
Estimated SGP set 3374 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.13341694 1.57757643 52365+0 43942-2 0 90820
2 24316 25.1949 85.9845 2020505 272.7828 64.4168 11.88144581 9040
Estimated SGP set 3129 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.21681585 1.70713516 56543+0 45068-2 0 90824
2 24316 25.1856 85.6246 1898379 273.3983 65.1965 12.15523794 9051
Estimated SGP set 2880 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.29831657 1.86198337 71691+0 46393-2 0 90827
2 24316 25.1777 85.2568 1769854 274.0270 66.0323 12.44561437 9065
Estimated SGP set 2623 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.37789080 2.05772296 94676+0 48110-2 0 90829
2 24316 25.1693 84.8807 1633226 274.6703 66.9418 12.75680125 9078
Estimated SGP set 2355 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.45549128 2.31515726 13246+1 50371-2 0 90824
2 24316 25.1601 84.4951 1485980 275.3298 67.9523 13.09506334 9088
Estimated SGP set 2071 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.53104364 2.67380980 19074+1 53571-2 0 90823
2 24316 25.1525 84.0987 1324111 276.0077 69.1003 13.47021971 9098
Estimated SGP set 1763 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.60443003 3.21728055 33106+1 58107-2 0 90829
2 24316 25.1410 83.6900 1140917 276.7069 70.4632 13.89924810 9104
Estimated SGP set 1412 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.67545683 4.10876608 55161+1 64772-2 0 90820
2 24316 25.1304 83.2658 0923068 277.4327 72.1865 14.41500943 9116
Estimated SGP set 989 x 95 km
1 24316U 96054B 97075.74380058 5.95912377 18024+2 74867-2 0 90823
2 24316 25.1166 82.8214 0646112 278.1931 74.5343 15.08075201 9122
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