Re: Cosmos 2321 Rocket paths over the US

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 13 Mar 1997 20:38:31 +0000

In message <199703130019.SAA22693@freeside.fc.net>, Mike McCants
<mikem@fc.net> writes
>Cosmos 2321 rocket will make 3 passes over the US
>this evening.  All times are UT, All longitudes
>are west.
>
>   97 Mar 13 UT   Wed evening
>
> NCAT 23677 Cosmos 2321 Rocket 
>
> HGT HR MN  REVS   LAT   LONG
>
>...
>  97  2 31   4.6  51.7  -98.2
>  96  2 32   4.6  47.6  -97.3
>  95  2 33   4.6  43.6  -96.5
>  94  2 34   4.6  39.5  -95.8
>  92  2 35   4.6  35.4  -95.3
>  91  2 36   4.6  31.4  -94.8
>  90  2 37   4.6  27.3  -94.4
>...
>
>97072.11 would be 2:38UT.  Watch out Houston!
>
>My numerical integration comes up with a slightly later time.

The final four OIG elsets are:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            158 x 133 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.84063624  .07189284 -13221-5  97521-4 0  6037
2 23677  82.8948 299.6080 0019129 290.6809  69.2454 16.47793824 81051
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            154 x 130 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.90134933  .09128063 -13284-5  10271-3 0  6053
2 23677  82.8921 299.5297 0018389 286.9951  73.0097 16.49116676 81067
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            143 x 122 km
1 23677U 95052B   97072.02255775  .13914758 -13466-5  98397-4 0  6063
2 23677  82.8907 299.4001 0016609 284.8376  75.0256 16.52618510 81083
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            138 x 106 km
1 23677U 95052B   97072.08309479  .24018761 -16937-5  96397-4 0  6076
2 23677  82.8781 299.3948 0024874 225.4029 135.2173 16.56528540 81096

The residuals (OIG-SatEvo) between the equator crossings calculated from
these elsets and the predictions I posted yesterday are +0.06s, +0.01s
(!), +0.88s and -4.44s. From this I judge that my estimated decay at
about March 13.11 is not far from the truth. I doubt if it could have
made it around to the next ascending node (south->north equator
crossing).

I have heard no reports of the decay being observed, but the fact that
OIG have yielded an elset for 97072.083 suggests that it was still in
orbit as it crossed at least part of N America on that rev. Perhaps
decay occurred as it headed S over the Gulf of Mexico and across S
Mexico.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
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