Re: Decay of Cosmos 2321 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 12 Mar 1997 21:47:00 +0000

I said...

>My latest SatEvo analysis predicts decay at March 12.75 +/- 0.1d ...

Can I take that statement back please? :-(

Having run around 4 seconds ahead of prediction for several hours, the
rocket was 26 seconds late by 14h UT today and OIG elsets were
suggesting a decreasing (?!) drag for a time. The latest OIG elset is:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            160 x 135 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.77989444  .06639071 -13194-5  10591-3 0  6028
2 23677  82.8846 299.6697 0019070 290.1082  69.8411 16.46773924 81041

My latest analysis suggests decay will be at March 13.11 (give or take a
day or two!). Predicted elsets:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            156 x 133 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.84061337  .09847049  97009-1  13277-3 0 96022
2 23677  82.8842 299.6005 0017229 289.8503  69.9664 16.48061981 81054
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            151 x 131 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.90131448  .12002595  15342+0  13703-3 0 96025
2 23677  82.8838 299.5312 0015166 289.5921  70.2442 16.49378442 81062
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            145 x 128 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.96196213  .15678243  28474+0  14516-3 0 96027
2 23677  82.8832 299.4618 0012777 289.3336  70.5283 16.51034501 81072
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            137 x 124 km
1 23677U 95052B   97072.02253967  .23661253  73931+0  16385-3 0 96021
2 23677  82.8825 299.3923 0009826 289.0746  70.8209 16.53341657 81082
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            123 x 116 km
1 23677U 95052B   97072.08300795  .60501226  66391+1  24697-3 0 96021
2 23677  82.8811 299.3226 0005461 288.8150  71.1257 16.57647337 81096

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
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