Re: Decay of Bion 11 C and Cosmos 2321 r

Bjoern Gimle (b_gimle@algonet.se)
Tue, 11 Mar 1997 06:37:52 +0100

Alan Pickup <alan@wingar.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>The Bion 11 C object is still on course for decay at about March 10.22.
>
>The latest OIG elset is:
>Bion 11 deb C                                    168 x 151 km
>1 24706U 96073C   97068.62698098  .04733386  89114-5  18981-3 0  1491
>2 24706  62.7973 314.4017 0012909 109.1517 251.0931 16.42543578 12043

At 06:09 the latest (last?) 5 elsets at OIG were:
Element set number = 3
1 24706U 96073C   97069.05237822  .07712459  90667-5  97774-4 0  1543
2 24706  62.7858 312.6200 0007313  97.4807 262.6839 16.49196047 12118
The latest set =
1 24706U 96073C   97069.05237822  .07712459  90667-5  97774-4 0  1543
2 24706  62.7858 312.6200 0007313  97.4807 262.6839 16.49196047 12118
Element set number = 2
1 24706U 96073C   97068.99173053  .19030627  89860-5  29387-3 0  1528
2 24706  62.7975 312.8685 0007859 121.9968 238.2318 16.48004826 12105
Element set number = 4
1 24706U 96073C   97068.99172988  .06301296  90230-5  97600-4 0  1531
2 24706  62.8031 312.8693 0009416 103.5119 256.7072 16.47832877 12109
Element set number = 1
1 24706U 96073C   97068.74869236  .05265116  89386-5  16367-3 0  1509
2 24706  62.7947 313.8875 0012184 109.1565 251.0968 16.43841182 12062
,and the one Alan posted. 
I adjusted the ndot2 (.04733386) to .05173386, which appears
to be the best .0001 delta to fit the latest elset.
This gives a predicted decay at 05:50 UT, at about 49N, 93E (Russia)
northbound in daylight.

-----------------------------
        SatEvo v0.21
       by Alan Pickup
   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk
-----------------------------

Element evolution for object 96073C  

Predicted decay after    0.6163 days on date =   97069.2433 (1997 March 10)

 Uses delta-Q of 0.000000

Adj. Element set number = 5                      168 x 151
1 24706U 96073C   97068.62696322  .05173268  22210-1  20705-3 0 91493
2 24706  62.7973 314.4018 0012909 109.1517 250.9882 16.42543394 12043
Adj. Element set number = 5                      165 x 149
1 24706U 96073C   97068.68782912  .05611950  26727-1  19880-3 0 91494
2 24706  62.7971 314.1474 0012255 109.1642 250.9685 16.43199034 12058
Adj. Element set number = 5                      163 x 148
1 24706U 96073C   97068.74866961  .06145990  32858-1  19105-3 0 91497
2 24706  62.7969 313.8929 0011564 109.1767 250.9485 16.43913276 12067
Adj. Element set number = 5                      160 x 146
1 24706U 96073C   97068.80948232  .06812162  41500-1  18389-3 0 91495
2 24706  62.7966 313.6382 0010830 109.1892 250.9280 16.44699708 12075
Adj. Element set number = 5                      158 x 145
1 24706U 96073C   97068.87026423  .07669598  54287-1  17745-3 0 91496
2 24706  62.7964 313.3834 0010043 109.2017 250.9070 16.45577571 12080
Adj. Element set number = 5                      154 x 142
1 24706U 96073C   97068.93101149  .08820256  74471-1  17197-3 0 91491
2 24706  62.7960 313.1283 0009189 109.2143 250.8852 16.46575531 12094
Adj. Element set number = 5                      151 x 140
1 24706U 96073C   97068.99171891  .10457393  10935+0  16788-3 0 91497
2 24706  62.7957 312.8731 0008247 109.2268 250.8624 16.47739323 12107
Adj. Element set number = 5                      146 x 137
1 24706U 96073C   97069.05237905  .13001045  17844+0  16616-3 0 91492
2 24706  62.7953 312.6175 0007184 109.2394 250.8383 16.49149423 12113
Adj. Element set number = 5                      141 x 133
1 24706U 96073C   97069.11298018  .17586644  35085+0  16939-3 0 91493
2 24706  62.7947 312.3617 0005935 109.2520 250.8122 16.50970990 12122
Adj. Element set number = 5                      133 x 127
1 24706U 96073C   97069.17350040  .28891523  10528+1  18763-3 0 91493
2 24706  62.7940 312.1054 0004341 109.2647 250.7823 16.53655384 12136
Adj. Element set number = 5                      113 x 111
1 24706U 96073C   97069.23387369 1.70093938  38247+2  44946-3 0 91497
2 24706  62.7928 311.8482 0001552 109.2774 250.7394 16.60564708 12146

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