Re: Decay of Bion 11 C and Cosmos 2321 r
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 10 Mar 1997 19:55:46 +0000
I wrote
>The Bion 11 C object is still on course for decay at about March 10.22.
>...
and provided a SatEvo prediction which concluded...
>Bion 11 deb C 145 x 136 km
>1 24706U 96073C 97069.05232839 .14421210 22405+0 17107-3 0 91499
>2 24706 62.7951 312.6173 0006878 109.2394 250.8350 16.49618855 12112
>Bion 11 deb C 139 x 131 km
>1 24706U 96073C 97069.11290810 .20512279 49254+0 17738-3 0 91493
>2 24706 62.7945 312.3613 0005506 109.2520 250.8075 16.51685509 12127
>Bion 11 deb C 129 x 124 km
>1 24706U 96073C 97069.17339214 .39466130 20792+1 21152-3 0 91497
>2 24706 62.7936 312.1048 0003651 109.2647 250.7748 16.55031459 12136
In fact, the final two OIG elsets are:
Bion 11 deb C 146 x 137 km
1 24706U 96073C 97069.05237822 .07712459 90667-5 97774-4 0 1543
2 24706 62.7858 312.6200 0007313 97.4807 262.6839 16.49196047 12118
Bion 11 deb C 133 x 126 km
1 24706U 96073C 97069.17347493 .18159527 91634-5 11726-3 0 1553
2 24706 62.7960 312.0241 0005539 164.4664 195.7287 16.53643866 12131
showing the object running respectively (and only) 3.1 and 4.6 seconds
late on my prediction for these epochs.
I calculate that decay occurred on the latter rev at about March 10.226
(05.25 UT) at which point it would have been around 1,000 km S of the
Cape of Good Hope, S Africa, on a track taking it (in daylight) NE over
the W Indian Ocean towards Bombay, India.
-----------------------------------
The latest elset from OIG for Cosmos 2321 r is:
Cosmos 2321 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 219 x 174 km
1 23677U 95052B 97069.27177800 .01757554 -12457-5 38560-3 0 5843
2 23677 82.8985 302.4752 0034545 316.6038 43.2558 16.28609652 80637
I am now predicting decay at about March 12.7. Predictions:
Cosmos 2321 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 206 x 168 km
1 23677U 95052B 97070.00836030 .02612542 40933-2 43357-3 0 95846
2 23677 82.8973 301.6577 0028739 313.5504 46.2107 16.31998482 80754
Cosmos 2321 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 194 x 163 km
1 23677U 95052B 97070.55969184 .03589210 85032-2 43927-3 0 95841
2 23677 82.8961 301.0428 0023471 311.2542 48.5435 16.35352112 80842
Cosmos 2321 r 7.4 2.4 0.0 5.5 v 178 x 155 km
1 23677U 95052B 97071.04863648 .05700494 24308-1 36842-3 0 95841
2 23677 82.8946 300.4944 0017522 309.2068 50.6376 16.39715622 80921
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224