Re: Decay of Bion 11 C and Cosmos 2321 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 10 Mar 1997 19:55:46 +0000

I wrote
>The Bion 11 C object is still on course for decay at about March 10.22.
>...
and provided a SatEvo prediction which concluded...
>Bion 11 deb C                                    145 x 136 km
>1 24706U 96073C   97069.05232839  .14421210  22405+0  17107-3 0 91499
>2 24706  62.7951 312.6173 0006878 109.2394 250.8350 16.49618855 12112
>Bion 11 deb C                                    139 x 131 km
>1 24706U 96073C   97069.11290810  .20512279  49254+0  17738-3 0 91493
>2 24706  62.7945 312.3613 0005506 109.2520 250.8075 16.51685509 12127
>Bion 11 deb C                                    129 x 124 km
>1 24706U 96073C   97069.17339214  .39466130  20792+1  21152-3 0 91497
>2 24706  62.7936 312.1048 0003651 109.2647 250.7748 16.55031459 12136

In fact, the final two OIG elsets are:
Bion 11 deb C                                    146 x 137 km
1 24706U 96073C   97069.05237822  .07712459  90667-5  97774-4 0  1543
2 24706  62.7858 312.6200 0007313  97.4807 262.6839 16.49196047 12118
Bion 11 deb C                                    133 x 126 km
1 24706U 96073C   97069.17347493  .18159527  91634-5  11726-3 0  1553
2 24706  62.7960 312.0241 0005539 164.4664 195.7287 16.53643866 12131
showing the object running respectively (and only) 3.1 and 4.6 seconds
late on my prediction for these epochs.

I calculate that decay occurred on the latter rev at about March 10.226
(05.25 UT) at which point it would have been around 1,000 km S of the
Cape of Good Hope, S Africa, on a track taking it (in daylight) NE over
the W Indian Ocean towards Bombay, India.

              -----------------------------------

The latest elset from OIG for Cosmos 2321 r is:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            219 x 174 km
1 23677U 95052B   97069.27177800  .01757554 -12457-5  38560-3 0  5843
2 23677  82.8985 302.4752 0034545 316.6038  43.2558 16.28609652 80637

I am now predicting decay at about March 12.7. Predictions:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            206 x 168 km
1 23677U 95052B   97070.00836030  .02612542  40933-2  43357-3 0 95846
2 23677  82.8973 301.6577 0028739 313.5504  46.2107 16.31998482 80754
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            194 x 163 km
1 23677U 95052B   97070.55969184  .03589210  85032-2  43927-3 0 95841
2 23677  82.8961 301.0428 0023471 311.2542  48.5435 16.35352112 80842
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            178 x 155 km
1 23677U 95052B   97071.04863648  .05700494  24308-1  36842-3 0 95841
2 23677  82.8946 300.4944 0017522 309.2068  50.6376 16.39715622 80921

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224