Re: Decay of Bion 11 C and Cosmos 2321 r

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 9 Mar 1997 18:52:38 +0000

The Bion 11 C object is still on course for decay at about March 10.22.

The latest OIG elset is:
Bion 11 deb C                                    168 x 151 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.62698098  .04733386  89114-5  18981-3 0  1491
2 24706  62.7973 314.4017 0012909 109.1517 251.0931 16.42543578 12043
which shows it 6.2 sec early against the SatEvo evolution I posted
yesterday.

A new evolution satisfies the latest 8 elsets (over 0.9d) to within 
0.2 second. It continues...
Bion 11 deb C                                    165 x 149 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.68782659  .05830703  28943-1  20326-3 0 91490
2 24706  62.7971 314.1474 0012230 109.1642 250.9682 16.43278008 12057
Bion 11 deb C                                    163 x 148 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.74866359  .06411351  35912-1  19518-3 0 91497
2 24706  62.7969 313.8929 0011511 109.1767 250.9479 16.44021510 12064
Bion 11 deb C                                    160 x 146 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.80947159  .07143318  45898-1  18775-3 0 91496
2 24706  62.7966 313.6382 0010744 109.1892 250.9271 16.44843909 12073
Bion 11 deb C                                    157 x 144 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.87024730  .08098549  60998-1  18114-3 0 91495
2 24706  62.7963 313.3833 0009919 109.2017 250.9056 16.45767454 12083
Bion 11 deb C                                    154 x 142 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.93098641  .09405022  85554-1  17563-3 0 91495
2 24706  62.7960 313.1282 0009020 109.2143 250.8833 16.46826048 12098
Bion 11 deb C                                    150 x 139 km
1 24706U 96073C   97068.99168302  .11316201  12988+0  17183-3 0 91493
2 24706  62.7956 312.8729 0008020 109.2268 250.8599 16.48075510 12105
Bion 11 deb C                                    145 x 136 km
1 24706U 96073C   97069.05232839  .14421210  22405+0  17107-3 0 91499
2 24706  62.7951 312.6173 0006878 109.2394 250.8350 16.49618855 12112
Bion 11 deb C                                    139 x 131 km
1 24706U 96073C   97069.11290810  .20512279  49254+0  17738-3 0 91493
2 24706  62.7945 312.3613 0005506 109.2520 250.8075 16.51685509 12127
Bion 11 deb C                                    129 x 124 km
1 24706U 96073C   97069.17339214  .39466130  20792+1  21152-3 0 91497
2 24706  62.7936 312.1048 0003651 109.2647 250.7748 16.55031459 12136

The penultimate rev takes it SE over N America from British Columbia to
Texas between 03.10 and 03.18 UT but the final one just misses the W
coast at about 04.43 UT. In fact, the uncertainty in decay is still
around one orbit (and there is little chance of seeing it from Edinburgh
this evening).

         ---------------------------------------------

The latest elset for #23677 = 95- 52 B (Cosmos 2321 r) is:
Cosmos 2321 r    7.4  2.4  0.0  5.5 v            228 x 178 km
1 23677U 95052B   97068.59538851  .01732340 -12337-5  45653-3 0  5804
2 23677  82.8994 303.2199 0038014 321.7443  38.1117 16.26310041 80524
This shows it running 1.3 sec late against the SatEvo evolution I posted
yesterday. Decay still looks likely on the 12th.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224