Jian Bing 93 decay predictions
Mike McCants (mike@comshare.com)
Sun, 10 Mar 1996 20:14:50 -0600
Jian Bing 93
1 22870U 93063H 96069.55879199 .02744120 11308-4 11505-3 0 5126
2 22870 56.4144 27.3788 0131027 76.9255 284.6304 16.19120968117681
I have computed two possible decay scenarios. I expect that the actual
decay will be between the two, but I have been wrong in the past.
The so-called "high drag" elsets give a decay about 1:00 UT on March 12.
The "low drag" elsets give a decay about 3:45 UT.
[I also executed NPOE 3.0 with the 67.5 and 69.5 elsets. I adjusted
the satellite area value in order to produce consistent "crashes"
when the satellite has a negative altitude (or something). The
consistent time was March 12 about 4:00 UT. A 3% increase in area
with the 69.5 elset gave 2:00 UT.]
It is possible that if/when OIG has an elset around 71.5 (about
20:00 UT March 11?), the new elset can be compared to my predictions
and some conclusions drawn.
I should be able to perform more computations about 1:00 UT March 12.
After the elsets, I have lat, long times for when I guessed that
the satellite would be over Canada or the US when it is dark.
High drag elsets:
1 22870U 93063H 96071.03547000 .05230000 00000-0 24000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 20.1350 0084000 80.3760 279.7360 16.30900000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.52486000 .07940000 00000-0 34000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 17.7200 0061000 81.5260 278.5850 16.37040000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.58588000 .08590000 00000-0 40000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 17.4180 0058000 81.6700 278.4420 16.38090000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.64686300 .09390000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 17.1160 0054000 81.8130 278.2980 16.39240000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.70780000 .10430000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 16.8140 0050000 81.9570 278.1540 16.40510000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.76867000 .11800000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 16.5120 0046000 82.1010 278.0100 16.41950000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.82949000 .13760000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 16.2100 0041000 82.2450 277.8660 16.43620000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.89023000 .16790000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.9090 0034000 82.3890 277.7220 16.45660000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.95087000 .22250000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.6070 0026000 82.5320 277.5790 16.48360000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96072.01135000 .36020000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.3050 0011000 82.6760 277.4350 16.52720000 00
Re-entry interface at 100Km at 72.040 = March 12 at 1:00 UT.
Low drag elsets:
1 22870U 93063H 96071.03574000 .04800000 00000-0 24000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 20.1350 0085000 80.3760 279.7360 16.29980000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.52544000 .06880000 00000-0 34000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 17.7200 0066000 81.5260 278.5850 16.35670000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.58651000 .07330000 00000-0 40000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 17.4180 0063000 81.6700 278.4420 16.36560000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.64756000 .07870000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 17.1160 0060000 81.8130 278.2980 16.37530000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.70856000 .08520000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 16.8140 0056000 81.9570 278.1540 16.38570000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.76952000 .09330000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 16.5120 0053000 82.1010 278.0100 16.39700000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.83044000 .10380000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 16.2100 0049000 82.2450 277.8660 16.40970000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.89130000 .11780000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.9090 0044000 82.3890 277.7220 16.42400000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96071.95210000 .13780000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.6070 0039000 82.5320 277.5790 16.44080000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96072.01282000 .16910000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.3050 0033000 82.6760 277.4350 16.46130000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96072.07345000 .22660000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 15.0030 0025000 82.8200 277.2910 16.48880000 00
1 22870U 93063H 96072.13390000 .37910000 00000-0 50000-3 0 00
2 22870 56.4144 14.7010 0011000 82.9640 277.1470 16.53470000 00
Re-entry interface at 100Km at 72.157 = March 12 at 3:45 UT.
-----
Ncat 22870 Jian Bing 93
U is degrees since south-north equator crossing.
Height is meaningless.
Time is UT.
Revs is meaningless.
Longitude is negative for west longitude.
*** 96 Mar 12 Times are UT *****
U Hgt Hr Mn Revs Lat Long
73 90 0 34 1.0 53.0-102.0
77 91 0 35 1.0 54.5 -95.7
81 91 0 36 1.0 55.6 -89.0
85 91 0 37 1.0 56.3 -82.0
89 91 0 38 1.0 56.6 -74.8
93 91 0 39 1.0 56.4 -67.6
97 91 0 40 1.0 55.8 -60.5
102 91 0 41 1.1 54.7 -53.8
106 91 0 42 1.1 53.3 -47.4
110 90 0 43 1.1 51.5 -41.6
...
218 93 1 9 1.4 -31.1 31.3
222 94 1 10 1.4 -34.2 34.3
226 95 1 11 1.4 -37.2 37.5
...
65 90 1 59 2.0 49.3-134.8
69 90 2 0 2.0 51.3-129.5
73 90 2 1 2.0 53.1-123.7
77 91 2 2 2.0 54.6-117.4
81 91 2 3 2.0 55.7-110.6
85 91 2 4 2.0 56.4-103.6
90 91 2 5 2.0 56.6 -96.3
94 91 2 6 2.0 56.4 -89.1
98 91 2 7 2.0 55.7 -82.0
102 91 2 8 2.1 54.6 -75.3
106 91 2 9 2.1 53.1 -69.0
110 90 2 10 2.1 51.3 -63.2
114 90 2 11 2.1 49.3 -57.8
119 90 2 12 2.1 46.9 -52.9
...
82 91 3 30 3.0 55.9-130.6
87 91 3 31 3.0 56.5-123.4
91 91 3 32 3.0 56.6-116.1
95 91 3 33 3.0 56.2-108.9
99 91 3 34 3.0 55.4-101.9
103 91 3 35 3.1 54.2 -95.3
107 91 3 36 3.1 52.6 -89.1
112 90 3 37 3.1 50.7 -83.4
116 90 3 38 3.1 48.5 -78.2
120 90 3 39 3.1 46.1 -73.5
124 89 3 40 3.1 43.5 -69.2
...
93 91 4 59 4.0 56.4-134.3
97 91 5 0 4.0 55.8-127.1
101 91 5 1 4.1 54.8-120.3
106 91 5 2 4.1 53.4-113.9
110 90 5 3 4.1 51.6-108.0
114 90 5 4 4.1 49.5-102.5
118 90 5 5 4.1 47.2 -97.6
122 89 5 6 4.1 44.7 -93.1
126 89 5 7 4.1 42.0 -89.0
131 88 5 8 4.1 39.1 -85.2
135 88 5 9 4.1 36.1 -81.8
139 88 5 10 4.2 33.0 -78.7
143 87 5 11 4.2 29.8 -75.8
-----
The TSS/tether was a spectacular naked eye "flying string" this morning.
The last 1/8th degree or so was bent forward about 15 degrees. There
was a 6th magnitude bright spot at the bottom (broken) end.
Mike McCants
mike@comshare.com