FSW1 and TSS (SATEVO) decay predictions

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 10 Mar 1996 14:20:20 +0000

As a subscriber to this list for less than a day, but as someone who has
had an interest (though mainly casual and intermittent) in satellite
tracking since Sputnik 2 (!), may I join in please?

The decay predictions by Mike McCants have inspired me to dust the
cobwebs from some decay prediction software I wrote almost 17 years ago.
The software (SATEVO) seems to have done reasonably well in predicting
the FSW-1 orbit over recent days but will probably fail miserably now
that I'm tempted to publish some of its output. Ah well, nothing
ventured...

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Original orbit (from Mike's last post)
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96069.55879199  .02744120  11308-4  11505-3 0  5126
2 22870  56.4144  27.3788 0131027  76.9255 284.6304 16.19120968117681

SATEVO predictions (with arbitrary element number and invalid checksums)
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96070.05222605  .03029998  00000-0  00000-0 0 95120
2 22870  56.4135  24.9607 0120027  78.0840 283.2590 16.21963247117760
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.03627178  .04011735  00000-0  00000-0 0 95120
2 22870  56.4114  20.1060 0094336  80.4105 280.6547 16.28763905117920
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96071.58776967  .05186765  00000-0  00000-0 0 95120
2 22870  56.4099  17.3621 0076242  81.7257 279.1388 16.33760394118010
FSW-1
1 22870U 93063H   96072.01538041  .07206693  00000-0  00000-0 0 95120
2 22870  56.4083  15.2191 0058479  82.7530 277.9115 16.38933322118080

Decay of FSW-1 is predicted for March 12 at about 15h UT.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
Original orbit
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96068.20445684  .00483381  00000-0  25009-2 0   488
2 23805  28.4693 181.9269 0053170 310.5325  49.0741 15.76653960  2266

My predictions (with arbitrary element number and invalid checksums)
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96069.46981923  .00516466  00000-0  00000-0 0 90480
2 23805  28.4691 172.6717 0051259 325.6083  34.0610 15.77918171  2460
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96070.03889995  .00532931  00000-0  00000-0 0 90480
2 23805  28.4689 168.5036 0050377 332.3978  27.3356 15.78515261  2550
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96071.05005383  .00565048  00000-0  00000-0 0 90480
2 23805  28.4687 161.0882 0048769 344.4768  15.3742 15.79624831  2710
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96072.06047416  .00601433  00000-0  00000-0 0 90480
2 23805  28.4685 153.6657 0047107 356.5675   3.4003 15.80802674  2870
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96073.00703566  .00640241  00000-0  00000-0 0 90480
2 23805  28.4683 146.7002 0045496   7.9138 352.1560 15.81977200  3020
TSS                     
1 23805U 96012B   96074.01589661  .00687790  00000-0  00000-0 0 90480
2 23805  28.4680 139.2625 0043713  20.0292 340.1409 15.83315809  3180

Decay of TSS is predicted for March 26

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | Home lat. 55d53m48.7s N 
 Edinburgh   |      long. 3d11m51.2s W 
 Scotland    | alan@wingar.demon.co.uk 
             |   +44 (0)131 477 9144