Decay elsets/predictions

From: Bj|rn Gimle <Bjorn_Gimle_at_lector.kth.se>
Date: Tue, 7 Mar 1995 15:47:45 -0500
My apologies for posting identical, or nearly identical, copies of
my 30day/decay tles/predictions! I have problems with my internet
provider, telling me that messages were not sent, and missing
incoming messages.
If you think postings of this kind should be less frequent, or be
broken into smaller postings with varying frequencies, please let
me know!

Russell Eberst alerted me to the fact that #22643 has now left its
MM=15.520 orbit, where it had been been station-keeping with #22585,
brought down last Sep.-Dec., and #22709, which also was forced out
of its orbit last week!
In a different orbit plane, with similar station-keeping, are
now #22808 and #23336.

Russell also noticed that #23481 1994-85E may be same object as
#23440  1994-85B RS-15 R/B.
The explosion probably occurred on Dec.26.
And Russell supplied the decay predictions that have a decimal
on the day no.

New LEO objects are debris from 95-06, objects D-G, #23503-23506.

Here are some decay notes/estimates. I have now included
Radar Cross Sections (sq.m.) from NASA new format January
Satellite Situation Report. If you are using QUICKSAT/
HIGHFLY by Mike McCants, you can enter the RCS values
into your quicksat.mag file, for approximate brightness
computations; for SKYMAP, VIEWSAT, SEESAT ... you may try
8-2.5*ALOG10(RCS) as reference magnitude :

Need more elsets:
      23473
      23503
      23504
      23505
      23506
      22709
Already decayed ? :
2/12  22998
2/15? 01440
2/16  23348
2/18  23072
2/17  23478
2/18  23499
2/23  14199
2/24  22995
2/27  23154
2/27? 23474
2/27  23475
2/28  21868
3/01? 20613
3/03  22994   0.03
3/04? 20927   1.08

Decaying soon: RCS
E      21058  30.03
3/10?  23503
3/11?  23498
3/15.2 23498
3/17.2 22643  31.86
3/     22709  44.91
3/14?  23102   0.68
3/16   23505
3/22?  23504
3/     22892   0.17
3/30?  23021   0.07
4/     23506
4/12.7 21190   2.77
4/28   10339   0.03
5/     22844   0.02
5/     18955   0.13
5/05   23497
5/     22278   5.90
5/     23497
7/     23472
m      23453 maneuvres
m      23218  34.69
m      23095  21.17
       22933  19.27
       13390   7.63
       15205   0.09
       23021   0.08
12/    23471

Highly elliptic orbits, for which I do not extrapolate:
E     14130  28.08
E     21045   1.24
E     21555   2.88
E     23015   0.78
E     23306  18.73
E     22933  19.26
E     13390   7.63
E     15205   0.08
E     21142  20.73
E     23231  33.11
E     19599   0.09
E     15631  18.88
E     23172   0.68
E     23334  11.36
E     15489   0.79
E     11791   2.43
E     23326   0.18
E     23272   0.93
E     23193  24.82
E     08547   0.91
E     13786   1.76
E     21794   0.78
E     23117   0.99
E     22859   2.82
E     19220  34.23
E     21932   3.42
E     22110   2.64
E     07382   7.40
E     21892   1.44
E     22986   0.91
E     23312   0.04
E     10794   8.56
E     08368   2.74
E     23186  15.71
E     23029   3.30
E     22564  25.52
E     21829   1.00
E     04966   8.60
E     22859   2.82

Elsets for some of those:

The latest set =
1 01440U 65051C   95058.31056577 -.00000472  31632-5  69734-7 0  9469
2 01440  98.4886  32.0199 0038592 122.2252 238.2634 16.32993945595784
1977065DN  SET =
1 10339U 77065DN  95 63.39937656  .00608691  00000-0  40403-1 0  4977
2 10339  28.9821 124.8168 0223719 359.0330   0.9636 14.85938944546649
1983058C   SET =
1 14130U 83058C   95 65.06749319  .01095870 -25009-5  17638-2 0  8377
2 14130   8.4744 299.8557 3385318 316.2657  21.4600  8.84861318 23616
1990094E   SET =
1 20927U 90094E   95 63.17204497  .48146464  11440-4  56482-3 0  7659
2 20927  46.3330 329.2523 0205694 286.8930  70.9692 16.11224564  9283
1990116F   SET =
1 21045U 90116F   95 65.39052316  .02491495  29763-5  73429-3 0  5308
2 21045  46.4679  64.9212 2121239 192.6920 161.0860 11.53900391 67011
1991003D   SET =
1 21058U 91003D   95 64.20403481  .18622205 -25231-4  15028-2 0   662
2 21058   6.6911  96.6348 0742640 146.8514 217.8555 14.72900583 23714
1991021A   SET =
1 21190U 91021A   95 64.96882586  .00223443  29322-4  28729-3 0  5731
2 21190  65.8152 255.5136 0005079 224.8353 135.2949 16.07001460225734
1991047D   SET =
1 21555U 91047D   95 64.65325092  .00752269 -23874-6  11155-2 0  9992
2 21555  34.4848 172.8094 2983112 200.4612 144.5432  9.66374762 81353
1992090A   SET =
1 22278U 92090A   95 63.55839376  .00140078 -70031-5  11769-3 0   939
2 22278  28.1176 179.8862 0207831 101.5719 260.8261 15.81138183122755
1993029A  T NUMBER = 2
1 22643U 93029A   95 65.26063409  .00438396  69157-5  55164-3 0  2853
2 22643  65.0028 173.0622 0086907 268.0897  91.0306 15.99868320105164
1993044A   SET =
1 22709U 93044A   95 65.20350329  .00049084  74775-5  11206-3 0  2603
2 22709  65.0316 177.7832 0139395 265.2447  93.2816 15.82816300 94206
1983075J   SET =
1 22892U 83075J   95 65.12205901  .00159021  00000-0  20346-1 0  5339
2 22892  98.4660  71.9709 0375018 346.5871  12.5597 14.41865154 64917
1994006F   SET =
1 22994U 94006F   95 60.17282299  .02519058  11419-4  35459-3 0  3336
2 22994  56.9614 219.1618 0005560 305.8085  54.2290 16.34275010 61066
1994012F   SET =
1 23015U 94012F   95 60.18956544  .01699734  22209-6  62634-3 0  4572
2 23015  46.5473 131.0008 4869838 141.2459 266.6114  6.08418780 10499
1994014C  T NUMBER = 1
1 23021U 94014C   95 60.39421264  .00264571  00000-0  24103-2 0  3617
2 23021  82.5281 222.1295 0011596 256.7234 103.9021 15.67018345 56175
1994028B  T NUMBER = 1
1 23102U 94028B   95 65.27936974  .00527600  11887-3  11916-2 0  3366
2 23102  96.8185 256.0626 0018329 176.1302 183.9381 15.97302773 47106
1994064B   SET =
1 23306U 94064B   95 47.51127672  .00128883  85903-6  99784-3 0  1615
2 23306  25.9681 241.0347 6713148 271.8300  58.8568  3.10043742 25729
RS-15 R/B 85B = 85E ??
1 23440U 94085B   95056.14917024 -.00000042  00000-0  10000-4 0   164
2 23440  64.8332  76.2905 0188695 281.5963  76.3836 11.27117135  6885
MANEUVRED TO HIGHER ORBIT
1 23453U 94088A   95 58.89898746  .00118054  12545-4  21165-3 0   980
2 23453  64.8999  84.6153 0056483 102.6142 258.1194 15.98508625  9685
23463
1 23463U 95002A   95 64.77425119  .00000017  00000-0  15923-5 0   189
2 23463  82.9283 179.7279 0038391 175.9876 184.1601 13.71838380  5560
23464
1 23464U 95002B   95 63.77304443  .00000059  00000-0  48436-4 0   152
2 23464  82.9277 180.5006 0041750 179.8832 180.2338 13.71148936  5419
23465
1 23465U 95002C   95 60.84449117  .00000024  00000-0  10278-4 0   151
2 23465  82.9256 182.6411 0036458 187.6808 172.3799 13.71507097  5004
23466
1 23466U 95002D   95 64.36302661 -.00000070  00000-0 -91073-4 0   273
2 23466  82.9236 179.9430 0031236 169.1973 190.9852 13.73467467  5510
23467
1 23467U 95003A   95 56.55657808  .00000074  00000-0  10000-3 0   253
2 23467   5.1184 322.5521 0032703 181.5840  40.7762  1.00277472   348
23468
1 23468U 95003B   95 63.66740559  .00003242  00000-0  12157-2 0   175
2 23468  26.8919 303.8383 6705973 204.1392  98.5194  3.01530512  1058
23471
1 23471U 95004C   95 64.76138136  .00026307  00000-0  15402-3 0   213
2 23471  51.6567 311.9305 0015450  59.5495 300.5893 15.77986808  4813
23472
1 23472U 95004D   95 63.96867479  .00047919  00000-0  24841-3 0   268
2 23472  51.6498 315.6265 0017418  69.4340 290.8421 15.80311879  4696
23474
1 23474U 95004F   95 55.25000000  .00805370  34841-3  10180-2 0   213
2 23474  51.6448 359.4947 0009234 177.9817 126.3641 16.06819056  3490
23475
1 23475U 95004G   95 56.04967593  .00938013  11385-4  71397-3 0   152
2 23475  51.8625 355.8014 0107400 312.2362 149.5984 16.02836050  3450
23477
1 23477U 95005A   95 64.85179362 -.00012294  00000-0 -15537-3 0   284
2 23477  51.6481 315.5673 0004118 202.0603 158.1398 15.57847670  2868
23479
1 23479U 94085C   95 63.44263094 -.00000040  00000-0  10000-3 0   132
2 23479  65.0150  62.0498 0120909 294.2679  64.5673 11.40131516  7790
23480
1 23480U 94085D   95 64.47639542 -.00000040  00000-0  10000-3 0   188
2 23480  64.6719  60.8615 0208233 284.1256  73.6633 11.33059308  7866
RS-15 R/B 85E = 85B ??
1 23481U 94085E   95 52.33398981 -.00000042  00000-0  00000+0 0    20
2 23481  64.8516  82.5805 0190525 284.8504  73.1088 11.27116045  6608
23482
1 23482U 94085F   95 64.47340535 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0   189
2 23482  64.8159  63.8020 0278680 279.7544  77.2035 11.23600615  7794
23483
1 23483U 94085G   95 63.41718696 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0    56
2 23483  64.7268  65.2451 0203867 290.9398  66.9812 11.22833241  7673
23484
1 23484U 94085H   95 64.42953705 -.00000038  00000-0  10000-3 0   117
2 23484  64.8022  64.5569 0248023 295.1415  62.3979 11.19564497  7747
23485
1 23485U 94085J   95 64.44453613 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0   125
2 23485  64.6548  62.4454 0223062 280.8864  76.7045 11.25321134  7754
23486
1 23486U 94085K   95 53.06779633 -.00000038  00000-0  10000-3 0    34
2 23486  64.8946  82.3131 0195623 273.5590  84.2878 11.23197653  6514
23487
1 23487U 94085L   95 60.49402254 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0    55
2 23487  64.9351  68.9590 0180197 283.1369  74.9511 11.30234942  7316
23488
1 23488U 94085M   95 65.10876757 -.00000038  00000-0  10000-3 0   163
2 23488  64.9655  62.7476 0232500 263.1874  94.2844 11.24368848  7819
23489
1 23489U 94085N   95 64.47030940 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0   227
2 23489  64.9421  63.3572 0196148 290.2222  67.7720 11.26024721  7819
23490
1 23490U 94085P   95 64.36910423 -.00000038  00000-0  10000-3 0    50
2 23490  64.8318  64.5964 0142823 263.8597  94.6033 11.20400771  7762
23491
1 23491U 94085Q   95 63.49853500 -.00000042  00000-0  10000-4 0   108
2 23491  64.8866  65.3261 0246824 284.5770  72.7906 11.25005982  7596
23492
1 23492U 94085R   95 53.11504956 -.00000010  00000-0  88997-3 0    31
2 23492  64.9560  80.8199 0183976 284.6897  73.3885 11.30920313  6569
23493
1 23493U 94085S   95 58.04262626 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0    68
2 23493  64.9501  72.6013 0158252 290.0835  68.3168 11.31374706  7032
23494
1 23494U 94085T   95 65.03646851 -.00000038  00000-0  10000-3 0   151
2 23494  64.9759  62.4530 0403021 273.2337  82.2895 11.25762043  7867
23495
1 23495U 94085U   95 62.40291485 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0    48
2 23495  65.0200  66.0113 0191036 280.1737  77.7706 11.30870450  7610
23496
1 23496U 94085V   95 65.05924238 -.00000039  00000-0  10000-3 0   121
2 23496  64.8299  62.0877 0289980 284.2480  72.6645 11.26784769  7882
1995006A   SET =
1 23497U 95006A   95 62.59125430  .00075659  80313-5  11000-3 0   208
2 23497  62.8018 303.5773 0103091 107.8696 253.7344 15.95589014  2378
1995006B   SET =
1 23498U 95006B   95 64.83225460  .01012099  83393-5  64300-3 0   372
2 23498  62.7902 294.1336 0061014 111.9802 248.7857 16.12739288  2747
23500
1 23500U 95007A   95 65.25000000  .00001111  00000-0  51933-5 0   129
2 23500  28.4663  60.7704 0009976 316.0294 334.6039 15.72351268   627
1995008A   SET =
1 23501U 95008A   95 64.94237618  .00002478  00000-0  10716-3 0    87
2 23501  65.8492 325.6719 0035022 342.7227  17.2735 15.24359750   522
1995008B   SET =
1 23502U 95008B   95 65.20097843  .00000053  00000-0  10000-4 0   109
2 23502  65.8514 324.8324 0040206 350.7354   9.3017 15.25929643   565
1995006D  T NUMBER = 5
1 23503U 95006D   95 65.09788415  .01827911  00000-0  13238-1 0   101
2 23503  62.8415 294.3496 0102110  17.4308 343.1442 15.63397872  2763
1995006E  T NUMBER = 2
1 23504U 95006E   95 64.19634746  .00449389  00000-0  34985-2 0    76
2 23504  62.7979 297.6521 0104249  24.7876 335.8310 15.63335355  2624
1995006F  T NUMBER = 4
1 23505U 95006F   95 64.96513103  .00676178  81387-5  74009-3 0    99
2 23505  62.8218 294.2966 0081312 109.9455 254.0233 16.02615235  2754
1995006G  T NUMBER = 1
1 23506U 95006G   95 65.09715558  .00241232  80465-5  32299-3 0    60
2 23506  62.8065 293.7956 0101388 109.4757 251.7510 15.96731303  2775
Received on Tue Mar 07 1995 - 08:47:45 UTC

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