Re: I suspect space debris in low orbit and high rotation speed

From: Björn Gimle via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Mon, 13 Jun 2016 12:18:40 +0200
Apologies for this lengthy post - it developed gradually, and I find it
hard to choose what to remove !

IGS O2 Vec2TLE
1 80004U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00024000  00000-0  39209-3 0    13
2 80004  97.4566 303.1143 0009456  83.6508 340.5832 15.75126014 45476
IGS O2 Vec2TLE
1 80005U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00024000  00000-0  39209-3 0    13
2 80005  97.4566 303.1143 0009456  83.6508 346.5832 15.72126014 45476

I have spent a lot of time identifying stars and measuring tracks in images
20160522/0530 by Ruiz, Almeria, Spain.
The scarce stars, rather wide fields, and the fact that no track (just
flashes) are recorded (some of them start or end near image borders), made
star idents difficult, and flash times uncertain.
Also, he has not verified the actual camera time offset, and I have just
tried to guess the flash intervals.

An interesting thing in the image
20160530052755_SAM_3624_SpecialFilter_Cut.jpg is that the flash in the
corner is actually TWO bright objects (which are not stars). In view of the
orientation of the pair, and the following images, they are probably a
double flash from the same object.
In 20160522052203_SAM_3248_Filter_Explain_Cut3 the flashes are also double,
progressively of type fF, fF, FF, Ff, Ff ! So if the two sets of
observation are of the same object, the larger separation could be
explained by different phase angles.

I obtained on 05-22:
80008 16 643A   3602 G 20160522032219000 28 25 2139477+531548 55 F-020 20
003000
80008 16 643A   3602 G 20160522032209000 68 25 2130239+440346 55 H
80008 16 643A   3602 G 20160522032214000 28 25 2134490+484299 55 H-020 20
002500
and on 05-30:
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032803000 28 25 2113316+574933 55 H-020 20
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032803000 28 25 2113428+573228 55 F-000 20
003000
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032839000 28 25 2135380+854147 55 H-020 20
002500
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032848000 28 25 2335626+890276 55 H
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032855000 28 25 0827305+863175 55 H

Computing circular orbits, I got remarkably similar orbits, quite close to
those of IGS O2, re-epoched 293 days forward:
IGS? 20160522
1 80008U 16643A   16143.14049769 0.00000073  00000-0  50000-4 0    07
2 80008  97.3468 295.9430 0013411 297.0911 101.3000 15.52924570    05
IGS? 20160530
1 80009U 16651A   16151.14508102 0.00000073  00000-0  50000-4 0    07
2 80009  97.3030 304.2625 0013025 304.0104  97.7126 15.62417226    07
IGS O2 Vec2TLE
1 29393U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00024000  00000-0  39209-3 0    13
2 29393  97.4566 303.1143 0009456  83.6508 276.5832 15.72126014 45476
I used the first and last flashes of respective dates.

Fitting them with ElObsEnt (bad fit when using both dates):
IGS O2 20160522-30
1 80006U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00027912  00000-0  40000-3 0    09
2 80006  95.7714 302.9728 0009456  83.6508 344.1545 15.56122919    04
IGS O2 20160530
1 80007U 06037A   16151.13760809  .00025972  00000-0  40000-3 0    15
2 80007  97.1415 304.1678 0009456  83.4740 276.7591 15.54145689    19

However, the assumption that the first flash (pair, in the corner) 20160530
was in the middle of the 16 s exposure makes the duration of the following
eight flashes (three obs) longer than 16 s.
So I tried the following, with fixed 1.9 s spacing of the discrete flashes:

80008 16 643A   3602 G 20160522032210400 98 25 2130239+440346 55 H
80008 16 643A   3602 G 20160522032214200 28 25 2134490+484299 55 H-020 20
002500
80008 16 643A   3602 G 20160522032218000 28 25 2139477+531548 55 F-020 20
003000
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032810000 28 25 2113316+574933 55 H-020 20
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032810000 28 25 2113428+573228 55 F-000 20
003000
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032840400 28 25 2135380+854147 55 H-020 20
002500
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032846100 28 25 2335626+890276 55 H
80009 16 651A   3602 G 20160530032853700 28 25 0827305+863175 55 H

This set does not converge with both dates; for just 0530 obs it gives:
IGS O2 20160530
1 80006U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00083444  00000-0  40000-3 0    00
2 80006  97.3826 304.1120 0009456  83.6508 337.9179 15.82618961    04
with 0.10 degrees rms error.

This mean motion is IMHO much too high to be IGS O2.

Using MM closer to the expected value:
IGS O2 MM 20160530
1 80004U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00024000  00000-0  39209-3 0    13
2 80004  97.4566 303.1143 0009456  83.6508 340.5832 15.75126014 45476
IGS O2 MM 20160530
1 80005U 06037A   16151.08540860  .00024000  00000-0  39209-3 0    13
2 80005  97.4566 303.1143 0009456  83.6508 346.5832 15.72126014 45476


Please try to find other solutions - or suspects !
Even better, try to find it.
For me, it passes in the bright morning twilight.
I will enclose annotated images (request them if you want to work further)
and some of my work files to José Luis Ruiz.
His original posts are on satobs.org/seesat/May-2016/0124.html -
...0128.html
--------------------------------------------------------
Björn Gimle, COSPAR 5919
59.2617 N, 18.6169 E, 51 m
Satellite observation formats described:
http://www.satobs.org/position/IODformat.html
---------------------------------------------------------

2016-05-30 20:40 GMT+02:00 José Luis Ruiz <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>:

> ...
>
> www.dropbox.com/s/nmjkhe6788xvkc1/20160522052203_Map1_Sat%20Thor%20Burner%202A%20R_B%20%20Norad%207219%20ID%201974-015B.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/apy0k8mz4ynxch7/20160522052203_SAM_3248_Filter_Explain_Cut.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/j4r5wam11f8pkga/20160522052203_SAM_3248_SpecialFilter2_cut.jpg?dl=0
> For the day 30/05/2016:
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/8eeztx9mdybelne/20160530052755_map_purple%20circle%20flash.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/uhpuoya1waywkid/20160530052755_SAM_3624_Filter_Explain_Cut.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/ax02c36cupic4ac/20160530052755_SAM_3624_SpecialFilter_Cut.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/morf3aae4vcvqq2/20160530052839_map_green%20line%20flashes.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/9o1mvdlbgcbr6lx/20160530052839_SAM_3625_Filter_cut.jpg?dl=0
>
> https://www.dropbox.com/s/ldmegz87m52w84x/20160530052839_SAM_3625_Filter_cut2.jpg?dl=0
>
> Coordinates: 36.8389ºN, 2.4498ºW, Almería (Spain)
>
> --
> José Luis Ruiz Gómez
> _______________________________________________
> Seesat-l mailing list
> http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
>
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Received on Mon Jun 13 2016 - 05:19:32 UTC

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